Introduction
Bitcoin has significantly underperformed traditional assets since November, declining roughly 20% while gold and the S&P 500 posted gains. This divergence, highlighted by market intelligence firm Santiment, coincides with a cautious stance from large holders and mixed on-chain signals. As analysts debate whether current patterns signal stabilization or a prelude to a major rally, the crypto market’s trajectory into 2026 hinges on whether whale accumulation resumes alongside a recovery in trading activity.
Key Points
- Bitcoin's 20% drop since November contrasts with gold's 9% gain and S&P 500's 1% rise, highlighting a performance gap.
- Large wallet holders have been cautious or selling, whereas smaller wallets increased buying activity in late 2025.
- Technical analysts are divided, with some predicting a parabolic rally to $125K and others expecting a modest rise to $91,500 by January 2026.
A Stark Performance Divergence
Since early November, a clear performance gap has opened between Bitcoin and major traditional assets. According to data from Santiment, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 20%, trading near $88,000 as of late December. In stark contrast, gold has climbed 9% over the same period, while the S&P 500 has posted a more modest 1% gain. This underperformance has left the cryptocurrency market quieter relative to other sectors showing modest rebounds. The correlation between Bitcoin and these major asset classes continues to lag, setting the stage for a potential ‘catch-up’ play as markets head into 2026.
The divergence is not merely a price observation but reflects shifting capital flows and investor sentiment. As noted by former BitForex executive Garrett Jin, capital is fungible and tends to move toward perceived opportunities. The recent strength in gold and equities, juxtaposed with Bitcoin’s pullback, suggests money may have rotated out of crypto following its push to an all-time high in October. Jin’s commentary, shared on social channels, emphasizes the timeless market wisdom of selling high and buying low, implying that the current weakness in Bitcoin could eventually present a fresh opportunity.
The Whale-Retail Split and Mixed On-Chain Signals
Beneath the surface price action, Santiment’s data reveals a critical split in holder behavior. Throughout the second half of 2025, smaller retail wallets were active buyers. However, large wallet holders—often considered market movers or ‘whales’—largely held steady and engaged in selling after the October peak. Their cautious posture has maintained downward pressure on prices. Historically, a sustainable trend shift is marked by whales beginning to accumulate while retail buying eases, a condition that Santiment indicates is not yet fully evident.
Other on-chain metrics paint a picture of tentative stabilization rather than a decisive reversal. Long-term Bitcoin holders, who had been reducing their positions from 14.8 million coins in mid-July to 14.3 million by December, have paused further selling. Meanwhile, in a 24-hour window, the number of active Bitcoin addresses increased by 5.51%, yet the volume of transactions fell by almost 30%. This mismatch suggests growing speculative interest and market watchfulness, but not a corresponding commitment of capital through actual trading. The raw numbers indicate curiosity, not conviction.
Analyst Views: From Caution to Parabolic Forecasts
The analyst community is divided on the near-term outlook, reflecting the market’s uncertain footing. On one side, commentators like CyrilXBT frame the current setup as ‘late-cycle positioning’ before a potential sector rotation. The thesis posits that when liquidity conditions turn, gold’s rally could cool, potentially allowing Bitcoin to lead and other crypto tokens to follow.
On the more bullish end of the spectrum, technical analyst Javon Marks has drawn direct parallels between Bitcoin’s current chart patterns and the 2016-2017 period that preceded a historic parabolic move. Based on these ‘extreme similarities’ and persistent bullish signals, Marks continues to forecast a rally toward $125,000. In contrast, data from platform CoinCodex projects a more tempered path, forecasting Bitcoin could reach $91,500 by January 30, 2026—a rise of 3.68% from recent levels. This view is tempered by bearish market sentiment and a Fear & Greed Index reading of 23, indicating ‘Extreme Fear.’
The path forward appears contingent on specific on-chain triggers. For a confirmed reversal, short-term traders are advised to watch for two concurrent signals: large wallets resuming volume buying and transaction counts picking up alongside the rising active addresses. If whales begin accumulating again while long-term holders maintain their positions, that combination would provide a stronger bullish signal than any metric in isolation. Until then, the data points to stabilization, leaving room for a catch-up move in 2026 should broader liquidity and market sentiment turn favorable.
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