Bitcoin Tests Key Support Zone as Analyst Warns Against Premature Bottom Calls

Bitcoin slid sharply over the weekend, breaking below $76,000 in thin trading and briefly dipping through the $75,000 area as selling accelerated late Saturday into Sunday. The move pushed BTC into a zone that technician Aksel Kibar, a Chartered Market Technician and founder of Tech Charts LLC, has identified as a key band of horizontal support, roughly between $73,700 and $76,500. This decline did not occur in isolation. Macro markets were already in a forced-risk-off posture, with a violent sell-off in precious metals feeding broader deleveraging dynamics—exactly the kind of market environment that can amplify weekend volatility when liquidity thins out and stop-loss levels get tested.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $76,713, hovering within this crucial support range. The move highlights the heightened sensitivity of cryptocurrency markets to broader financial stress, particularly during periods of reduced trading volume. The weekend’s price action served as a stark reminder of how quickly technical levels can be challenged when macro headwinds converge with thin liquidity, setting the stage for a critical test of buyer conviction.

In a series of posts on social media platform X, Aksel Kibar emphasized a crucial distinction for traders: price reaching a support area is a location, not a signal. “Reaching a support area is not in itself a classical chart pattern buy signal,” he wrote. His message is clear—identifying a support zone does not provide an automatic green light for long positions. The difference, he argues, matters most when trying to avoid “catching a falling knife.”

Kibar’s process is built around classical chart patterns rather than “guessing” the low. He frames the current range as an area where a bottom could form but stresses that his approach requires waiting for structure—specifically, a bullish reversal pattern that changes the odds profile. “I’m not interested to find the support because I’m not trying to catch the falling knife,” he stated on January 30. “I’m interested to find a bottom reversal pattern. A double bottom. A H&S [head-and-shoulders] bottom. I will always miss the boat if it is a V reversal.” This deliberate trade-off, he added, is part of knowing one’s own constraints in the market.

For a bullish interpretation to gain traction in his framework, Kibar requires a confirmed breakout above $91,200, which he described as the completion point of a potential double-bottom scenario. “When I say we need a base building, some sort of a classical chart pattern (preferably with horizontal boundaries), I’m referring to the breakout above 91.2K,” he wrote, adding that such confirmation is “even more crucial because we are below long-term average.” This level acts as a concrete trigger, separating mere consolidation from a structurally significant trend change.

Kibar’s analysis also tackled the psychological traps inherent in bottom-calling. Responding to a user who suggested he sounded bullish but reluctant to “make a call” to avoid being wrong, Kibar sharpened the motive. “Everything correct,” he replied. “Except not I don’t want to be wrong but to have higher conviction. We can’t act in markets with the fear of being wrong.” This distinction is foundational, explaining why his framework demands visible evidence of buyers stepping in rather than relying on a single price level holding by default.

In his most recent updates, Kibar described the kinds of market behaviors that can hint at genuine demand emerging around support. He framed these not as a checklist but as “signs” that buyers are willing to defend an area: a pickup in activity and volatility, candlesticks that show rejection (such as doji-like structures with long lower wicks), and the formation of short-term reversal structures like double bottoms or head-and-shoulders bottoms. When asked if Bitcoin could be forming the right shoulder of a potential head-and-shoulders bottom, Kibar dismissed the timing as “too early to start thinking about this,” underscoring his discipline in waiting for patterns to fully materialize.

Kibar introduced a nuanced point on market structure, drawn from his experience managing a large fund in the United Arab Emirates (UAE): “If there are no sellers, there will be no buyers.” He argued that large buyers often require meaningful supply to build sizeable positions without moving the price against themselves. Consequently, heavy selling can sometimes create the necessary conditions for that accumulation, depending on the motives and liquidity of the participants.

He briefly extended this idea to the corporate entity Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, a major corporate holder of Bitcoin. Kibar noted he wasn’t sure whether the firm “will be required (from an accounting perspective) to sell any assets,” but added that in the cryptocurrency market, which he described as a “wild wild west,” “some buyer out there might be after that chunk at a reasonable price.” This observation connects the potential for large-scale selling pressure to the possibility of strategic accumulation by other institutional players, highlighting a complex dynamic where volatility can facilitate, rather than solely impede, major position-building.