Bitcoin Tests Critical Support Amid 10% Weekly Drop

The recent price action marks a significant shift for Bitcoin, which had been trading in a $90,000-$96,000 range since the start of the year after reaching a two-month high of $97,924. The breakdown from this consolidation has been severe. Trader Wealthmanager noted that the flagship cryptocurrency has now retraced all its 2026 gains, briefly falling below its yearly opening price and the Point of Control (POC). He emphasized that this area is critical; a loss here could send the price cascading toward the $80,000 mark.

This warning is echoed by technical analysts who point to a concerning chart pattern. Analyst Crypto Jelle highlighted a two-month bear flag structure on Bitcoin’s daily chart, suggesting a high probability of further downside. “Lose the current lows again, and bears will be fully back in the driver’s seat,” he asserted. Market observer Lyvo Crypto detailed the same formation, noting that Bitcoin has broken down from the pattern’s ascending support and lost its two-month uptrend. To Lyvo Crypto, this signals that “momentum is fully in the bears’ control” and warned that sustained bearish pressure could lead to a “free fall” likely resulting in a retest of the $78,000 area—the November lows.

The bearish technical outlook is compounded by historical comparisons that suggest a deeper correction may be ahead. Analyst Crypto Bullet drew a direct parallel between Bitcoin’s current price action and its performance in early 2022. He affirmed that the current trajectory closely mirrors that 2022 fractal, which preceded a major correction. At that time, Bitcoin retraced over 40% from its late 2021 cycle top, experienced a brief “dead cat bounce” at the start of 2022, and then underwent a second major leg down toward new lows.

Currently, Bitcoin displays a similar performance, having retraced 30% from the October 2025 highs and now attempting to reclaim lost ground. However, Crypto Bullet noted two critical differences from the 2022 scenario. First, Bitcoin has yet to retest key long-term indicators like the 50-week and 200-week Moving Averages (MAs). Second, the timing of the fractal hints that a final breakdown may not be due until later in the first quarter. “If we match the 2022 fractal’s top and the October 2025 top, we’ll see there’s still about 1 month of PA to make that final leg up and test the 50-Week MA or the 200-Day MA,” he explained.

This analysis leads to a nuanced, albeit cautious, outlook. Crypto Bullet concluded that one more rally above $100,000 is still plausible based on the pattern, but advised extreme caution as key supports are being tested. The potential for a final pump before a more significant breakdown adds a layer of complexity to the current bearish sentiment.

The immediate future for Bitcoin hinges on its ability to defend the current support zone between $84,000 and $87,000. The market’s erasure of 2026 gains has placed it at a pivotal technical juncture. As Lyvo Crypto advised, a breakdown to the November lows around $78,000 would require a strategic shift: “from there, we’ll wait for confirmation of a double bottom and look for a relief rally.” This suggests that even a bearish outcome could eventually set the stage for a new buying opportunity, but only after a significant further decline.

As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading at $89,890, representing a 1.2% increase on the daily timeframe. This minor bounce offers little solace to bulls, as the price remains well below recent highs and within the dangerous mid-zone of its $84,000-$94,000 range. The convergence of a broken two-month uptrend, a potential bear flag pattern, and fractals reminiscent of past deep corrections creates a high-stakes environment. The coming days will be decisive in determining whether Bitcoin can stabilize and reclaim its lost momentum or if analysts’ warnings of a retest toward $78,000 will materialize, confirming the bears’ firm grip on the market.