Bitcoin Tests $87,800 as Analysts Debate Next Major Move

The recent price action has prompted starkly different interpretations from technical analysts. Crypto analyst Junkie applies Elliott Wave Theory to the Bitcoin chart, suggesting the asset has completed a five-wave bearish pattern, which often marks the end of a downward move. According to this view, Bitcoin could be forming a short-term ABC corrective bounce. This pattern involves an initial rise (A), a subsequent dip (B), and a final push higher (C). If this scenario plays out, Junkie anticipates a retest of a key trendline and a potential rally into the $91,000 to $92,000 range. However, the analyst cautions that a final dip to around $84,000 may be needed to complete the wave structure before any reversal.

In sharp contrast, The Maverick of Wall Street points to a bear flag formation on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. This technical setup typically appears after a sharp decline and consists of a small, upward-sloping consolidation channel. The Maverick of Wall Street warns that a breakdown from this pattern could trigger a significant drop, with a price target as low as $60,000. This projection represents a 31% decline from recent trading ranges. Adding to the bearish technical picture, Bitcoin has fallen below its 50-week simple moving average (SMA), currently near $101,000, with the 200-week SMA around $57,800 looming as a potential major support level if the downtrend accelerates.

Beyond chart patterns, on-chain data from firms like Alphractal and CryptoQuant reveals fundamental pressures building beneath the surface. Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, which tracks the overall profit or loss of the network, is declining but remains in positive territory. Historically, major market cycle bottoms have often coincided with NUPL turning negative, signaling a state of full capitulation among holders—a condition not yet met in the current cycle.

Other indicators are flashing more immediate warning signs. The Delta Growth Rate, which measures the pace of new capital entering the market, has turned negative. This shift suggests a pronounced slowdown in speculative buying momentum. Furthermore, a recent CryptoQuant report highlights that an increasing number of Bitcoin holders are now selling at a loss. This marks the first time in over two years that profit margins have compressed to such a degree, indicating rising selling pressure from distressed holders.

Bitcoin’s slide below the $88,000 level coincides with mounting macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States. Investors are navigating a cautious environment shaped by the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision and the looming threat of a US government shutdown. These macro pressures have contributed to a risk-off sentiment, prompting capital to retreat from volatile assets like cryptocurrencies.

The market now sits at a critical juncture, testing key support levels. The divergent analyst forecasts from Junkie and The Maverick of Wall Street encapsulate the current uncertainty. A decisive break below current supports could validate the bear flag thesis and open the path toward significantly lower prices. Conversely, a hold and bounce from these levels could initiate the short-term corrective rally toward $92,000 that Junkie’s Elliott Wave analysis suggests. The next major move for Bitcoin hinges on which of these technical narratives—and underlying on-chain trends—prevails in the face of ongoing macro headwinds.