Bitcoin Tests $80K Support Amid Fed Uncertainty & Technical Breakdown

Bitcoin has confirmed a decisive bearish breakout on its daily chart, invalidating a prior flag consolidation structure and signaling a continuation of the broader downtrend. This technical breakdown has shifted market focus toward critical demand zones, with the major psychological level at $80,000 now serving as the immediate battleground. According to the analysis, this zone represents a crucial buyers’ base that previously acted as a springboard for significant upside moves. The market’s reaction here is paramount: holding this support could trigger a relief bounce or short-term stabilization, while a clean break below would expose lower-liquidity pockets and decisively shift the medium-term bias to bearish.

This technical deterioration coincides with intensifying macro uncertainty. As reported by CryptoPotato, headlines surrounding former President Donald Trump’s potential pick to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have intensified risk-off sentiment across global markets. This development has weighed heavily on equities and risk assets, with cryptocurrency reacting swiftly as liquidity conditions tighten and volatility rises. The confluence of a technical breakdown and macro-driven fear has created an environment where volatility expansion around the $80,000 level is increasingly probable, making this demand zone a key decision point for Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Zooming into the 4-hour chart for BTC/USDT reveals a more tactical market structure. Following the sharp breakdown, Bitcoin is showing early signs of exhaustion, suggesting the possibility of a short-term pullback. From this perspective, the last significant supply zone overhead, around the $88,000 level, stands out as the most likely magnet for any corrective move. This area previously acted as a distribution point before the impulsive sell-off and is expected to attract sellers on a retest. A pullback into this $88,000 supply zone would be technically healthy, allowing the market to rebalance before deciding on continuation or reversal. Failure to reclaim it would reinforce bearish control, while acceptance above it would be the first signal of structural recovery.

On-chain analysis provides a deeper layer of insight into holder behavior. The Realized Price – UTXO Age Bands data reveals an important shift: longer-term holders remain relatively stable, while shorter-term cohorts show signs of stress as the price trades closer to their realized cost basis. Notably, the compression between mid-term realized prices and the asset breaking below the 12-18 month cohort’s realized price suggests Bitcoin is approaching an area where historical accumulation tends to emerge, particularly if macro fear peaks. While this does not guarantee an immediate bottom, it supports the idea that downside momentum from current levels may become increasingly reactive rather than trend-driven.

The immediate question for the market is how deep Bitcoin could fall if the $80,000 support breaks. The technical and on-chain analyses converge on this level’s significance. The bearish daily chart breakdown has opened the door for accelerated downside momentum, with the $80,000 zone acting as the final major defense before lower-liquidity pockets are exposed. The macro overhang from Federal Reserve leadership speculation amplifies the volatility around this decision point, meaning the reaction here could be swift and pronounced.

Combined, the heightened macro uncertainty and current on-chain positioning reinforce the importance of the $80,000 demand zone as a potential pivot area for Bitcoin’s next major move. The stress on shorter-term holders, juxtaposed with historical patterns of accumulation near these realized price levels, creates a tense equilibrium. The market’s path will likely be determined by whether macro fears subside enough to allow the technical and on-chain support to hold, or if continued risk-off sentiment overwhelms these factors, leading to a breakdown and a search for a new, lower equilibrium. For now, all eyes are fixed on the $80,000 support test.