Bitcoin Stuck in Bear Mode as Macro Signals Turn Negative

The core of the current bearish thesis, as outlined by analyst Axel Adler, revolves around the Trend Pulse indicator. This macro tool recently shifted from Neutral to Bear, a move triggered by a double-negative setup. The first component is the 14-day return, which has flipped into negative territory. The second is the trend signal between the 30-day simple moving average (SMA30) and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA200), which has also turned negative. This confluence indicates that both short-term momentum and the longer-term trend structure are aligned in a bearish configuration.

This shift is not an isolated event but part of a prolonged phase. Adler notes that Bitcoin’s last confirmed Bull Mode signal was printed on November 2, 2025, when BTC traded near $110,000. Since that peak roughly 83 days ago, the market has failed to regain its structural strength. A brief Neutral stretch between December 30 and January 18 proved insufficient to restore the long-term uptrend, leaving the asset vulnerable once selling pressure returned. The path to recovery is now clearly defined: the 14-day return must move back above zero to shift the regime from Bear to Neutral. However, a full return to Bull Mode requires the SMA30 to break decisively above the SMA200—a crossover that, given the current divergence, would likely demand 3–4 weeks of sustained upside momentum rather than a fleeting rally.

Adding crucial macro context is Bitcoin’s quarterly return, tracked over a 90-day period and serving as a broad sentiment proxy. Historically, readings above +75% align with market euphoria, while values below 0% signal pessimism. Drops below -30% typically reflect the kind of deep capitulation that can precede a major reversal. Currently, Bitcoin’s quarterly return sits at -19%. This figure is definitively negative, confirming the macro weakness highlighted by the Trend Pulse, but it remains notably distant from the extreme bear-market lows that often signal a washout bottom.

This creates a nuanced and challenging market environment. The data points to moderate, sustained pessimism without the finality of capitulation. The 7-day change, at -6.8%, suggests downside momentum is accelerating following the breakdown below $90,000. Together, these metrics paint a picture of a market at a decision point: bearish enough to suppress rallies, but not so overwhelmingly negative as to force a panic-driven flush that could clear the way for a new uptrend. For traders, this means navigating a landscape defined by vulnerability to further declines rather than the explosive fear that marks a tradable bottom.

On the chart, Bitcoin’s price action reinforces the bearish macro signals. After failing to hold above the $90,000 level, BTC is trading near $89,000, cementing the market’s indecision. The structure since the early November peak is one of lower highs, followed by a sharp selloff that reset price into a wide consolidation range. Subsequent rebound attempts have repeatedly stalled in the mid-$90,000 zone, failing to generate sustained upward momentum.

Critically, Bitcoin remains pressured beneath its key moving averages. The price is trading below both the green long-term average and the blue mid-term average, with both slopes now pointing downward—a clear signal that broader momentum continues to lean bearish. The most recent rejection occurred as BTC briefly pushed into the $95,000–$97,000 area before rolling over and breaking back toward range lows. Furthermore, the red long-term average sits well above price in the low-$100,000s, illustrating the significant distance Bitcoin must recover to reestablish a robust macro uptrend. Volume dynamics add to the concern, with selloffs attracting more urgent participation than bounces, indicating stronger conviction on the downside.

For bulls seeking to reverse this narrative, the technical hurdles are clear. A decisive reclaim and hold above $90,000 is the first step, followed by a sustained break above the $92,000–$94,000 resistance zone. Failure to achieve this keeps the risk of a deeper corrective phase alive, with a pullback toward the mid-$80,000 region becoming a distinct possibility. Until these key levels are conquered, the market remains defined by the bearish macro signals and the technical structure that confirms them.