Bitcoin Struggles Below Bull Channel: 2025 Q4 Faces Critical Test

The core technical narrative for Bitcoin, as detailed by analyst Titan of Crypto, revolves around a significant structural break. For six weeks, BTC has traded below the ascending channel that contained its bull market for approximately two years. This is not a brief dip; the price has made three distinct attempts to re-enter this channel, and each has been met with rejection. This repeated failure has effectively transformed the channel’s former lower boundary from a support level into a formidable zone of resistance. The current consolidation just beneath this area suggests a fourth attempt may be imminent, but the outcome is far from certain.

According to Titan of Crypto, the market’s reaction from this point will define the nature of the break. The resolution could take one of three paths: a simple deviation where price briefly dips below the channel before recovering; a retest from below, confirming the break as legitimate; or a full reintegration back into the channel, negating the breakdown. This uncertainty underscores the critical technical test Bitcoin is undergoing as 2025 concludes, with the asset’s medium-term trend hanging in the balance.

Adding to the bearish technical concerns are historical parallels drawn by analyst Crypto Tice. He identifies similarities between Bitcoin’s 2025 price action and the rounded top formation that preceded the sharp correction in 2021. The pattern—characterized by a peak, a decline, a bounce, and then sustained selling pressure—suggests the current market bounce may not indicate underlying strength. Crypto Tice cautions that such periods are historically where “positioning changes hands,” signaling a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment among larger market participants.

While he acknowledges a push toward the $100,000–$105,000 range remains possible, he warns that reaching those levels “has never been about celebration” and could instead mark a major sentiment turning point. This view finds a more immediate bearish counterpart in the analysis of Trader Tardigrade, who points to a potential bearish pennant formation on the weekly chart. This technical pattern, if confirmed, projects a downward move with a target around $60,000, which would extend the bear market that began in September and represent a significant devaluation from current levels.

Beyond chart patterns, on-chain data presents a mixed picture. Investment firm VanEck reported a roughly 4% decline in Bitcoin’s network hashrate as of mid-December. Historically, such dips in mining activity have sometimes coincided with market bottoms, offering a potential contrarian bullish signal. However, as with all historical patterns, there is no guarantee of repetition, and this data point remains an uncertain indicator amidst the prevailing technical weakness.

The broader performance metrics solidify the negative quarterly outlook. As reported by CryptoPotato, Bitcoin is poised to close the fourth quarter of 2025 with a decline of approximately 22%. This would mark the weakest Q4 performance for BTC since the bear market of 2018, highlighting the severity of the current pullback within a longer-term context. At press time, Bitcoin’s price of around $87,100 reflects this struggle, down 2% over 24 hours but showing a modest 2% gain over the past seven days—a consolidation that does little to offset the quarter’s substantial losses.

The convergence of a broken long-term trend, ominous historical comparisons, and the worst Q4 in seven years creates a high-stakes environment for Bitcoin. The market now watches to see if the sixth-week breakdown proves to be a buying opportunity at a perceived bottom or the confirmation of a deeper structural shift. The resolution of this test below the bull channel will likely set the tone for Bitcoin’s trajectory in the opening months of 2026.