Bitcoin Struggles at $102K as Demand Falters Against Selling

Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals a significant shift in Bitcoin market dynamics that explains the cryptocurrency’s recent price struggles. According to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, the 30-day sum of long-term holder (LTH) spending has been steadily increasing since early October 2025. This pattern of profit-taking is normal during bull markets as Bitcoin approaches or surpasses all-time highs, but the current market response differs markedly from previous cycles.

The critical difference lies in demand dynamics. During previous bullish phases in early 2024 and late 2024, LTH sell-offs occurred alongside expanding demand, allowing Bitcoin to push to new record prices. CryptoQuant’s chart shows green areas representing periods of positive apparent demand growth during those periods, which successfully absorbed the increased selling pressure. However, since October 2025, demand has entered a contraction phase—represented by red areas on the chart—even as LTH selling continues to increase.

This imbalance between supply from long-term holders and market demand has coincided with Bitcoin’s inability to sustain its position above $102,000. The cryptocurrency’s struggle to maintain stability at these levels suggests that price growth momentum may be faltering, as the market demonstrates limited capacity to absorb the ongoing sell-offs from investors who have held Bitcoin through previous market cycles.

Compounding the demand-side challenges, US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced significant outflows that further reduce the market’s ability to absorb long-term holder selling. Data from SosoValue shows that these ETFs ended last week with net outflows of $558.44 million on Friday, November 7 alone—one of the largest single-day outflows in weeks. This substantial withdrawal of institutional capital represents a critical reduction in demand at a time when the market needs it most.

Moreno emphasized that the critical factor to watch isn’t just the volume of long-term holder sell-offs but whether demand growth can keep pace. When demand is strong, the influx of supply from long-term holders often drives healthy consolidation before another price surge. However, the current combination of increased LTH selling and ETF outflows creates a scenario where demand is clearly falling behind supply.

The significance of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the current market structure cannot be overstated. These instruments have become a primary source of demand in recent months, and their sharp slowdown in inflows—turning to substantial outflows—removes a key support mechanism that previously helped offset long-term holder profit-taking. This development marks a notable shift from earlier in the bull run when ETF inflows provided consistent demand pressure.

The current market dynamics suggest Bitcoin may face extended consolidation rather than immediate new highs. Unless apparent demand begins to recover in the coming weeks while LTH sell-offs continue, this imbalance is likely to continue weighing on price action and potentially postpone the next leg of Bitcoin’s rally. The data indicates we might see Bitcoin consolidating between $101,000 and $103,000 for the remainder of November.

Historical patterns provide context for the current situation. During previous cycles when demand fell behind long-term holder selling, the result tended to be prolonged corrections or sideways movement rather than rapid price appreciation. The current scenario mirrors these historical precedents, suggesting that without a resurgence in demand—particularly from institutional channels like Spot Bitcoin ETFs—the path to new highs may require more time.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $101,655, down 0.6% in the past 24 hours, reflecting the ongoing pressure from this supply-demand imbalance. The convergence of increased long-term holder selling, contracting demand, and substantial ETF outflows creates a challenging environment for Bitcoin to overcome in the near term, potentially marking a period of consolidation before the next significant market move.