While traditional safe-haven assets and equity markets reach unprecedented highs, Bitcoin remains stagnant in a puzzling market divergence that challenges its ‘digital gold’ narrative. This unusual disconnect between the flagship cryptocurrency and other major financial instruments is prompting analysts to question Bitcoin’s role during economic uncertainty, with internal selling pressure rather than macro trends appearing to drive its underperformance.
- Long-term Bitcoin holders have sold approximately 230,000 BTC in the last 30 days, creating sustained selling pressure
- Gold has gained over 37% year-to-date while silver is up more than 41%, both hitting record highs alongside equity markets
- Technical analysis shows a rare golden cross on Bitcoin's daily MACD paired with an MVRV bottom near $107,000, historically preceding 30-40% rallies
The Contradictory Market Environment
The current financial landscape presents a paradox that has left even seasoned analysts perplexed. Gold, the ultimate safe-haven asset, has surged over 37% this year, reaching a new all-time high of $3,697, while silver has gained more than 41%. Simultaneously, U.S. stock indices including the S&P 500 and tech-heavy NASDAQ are trading at or near their peak values. This simultaneous appreciation of both conservative safe-haven assets and risk-on equities creates what analyst JA Maartunn describes as ‘a really confusing picture’ where the market appears to be both risk-on and risk-off at the exact same time.
This unusual market behavior suggests investors are hedging against multiple sources of instability, including a weakening U.S. dollar, political uncertainty in Europe, and mounting sovereign debt concerns. Typically, such an environment would provide fertile ground for Bitcoin, which proponents argue functions as a non-sovereign store of value immune to traditional financial system risks. Yet Bitcoin’s price action tells a different story, remaining range-bound while other assets achieve remarkable gains.
Internal Pressures: The Long-Term Holder Exodus
According to Maartunn’s analysis, Bitcoin’s underperformance stems not from macroeconomic factors but from internal ecosystem dynamics. The key issue appears to be substantial selling pressure from long-term holders, with approximately 230,000 BTC sold in the last 30 days alone. This represents a significant shift in holder behavior that has created a supply-demand imbalance preventing price appreciation despite favorable external conditions.
The constant selling from these traditionally steadfast investors has overwhelmed incoming demand, creating a stalemate that has kept Bitcoin trading within a tight range. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $115,852, down 0.5% in the last 24 hours but up 3.4% on the week. More tellingly, the asset has dipped 1.9% over the past month and remains 6.6% below its all-time high set on August 14, despite maintaining a 97% year-on-year gain.
This pattern suggests that while Bitcoin maintains long-term strength, short-term pressures are preventing it from participating in the broader market rally. The cryptocurrency has oscillated between $114,509 and $116,450 in the past day and within a $110,870–$116,705 band over the last seven days, reflecting consolidation rather than trend continuation.
Technical Signals and Long-Term Prospects
Despite the current stagnation, some technical indicators suggest potential for significant upward movement. A September 15 report highlighted a rare golden cross on Bitcoin’s daily MACD paired with an MVRV bottom near $107,000—a signal that has historically preceded 30% to 40% rallies. This technical setup has led observers to believe Bitcoin could be positioning for a move toward $140,000 or higher if historical patterns repeat.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, maintains an even more bullish long-term perspective, arguing that macro liquidity rather than cyclical patterns will extend Bitcoin’s bull run into 2026. Hayes has doubled down on his earlier target of $250,000 for the asset, emphasizing that short-term frustration shouldn’t overshadow Bitcoin’s long-term edge against fiat currency debasement. His view represents the fundamental case for Bitcoin as a hedge against traditional financial system risks, even during periods of temporary price stagnation.
The Path Forward for Digital Gold
The current market divergence raises important questions about Bitcoin’s evolving role in the global financial ecosystem. While its proponents have long argued for its status as ‘digital gold,’ its failure to rally alongside traditional safe havens during a period of economic uncertainty challenges this narrative. However, it’s crucial to recognize that Bitcoin’s market dynamics are still maturing, and its correlation with other assets may evolve over time.
For now, Maartunn’s diagnosis appears most relevant: until fresh demand can absorb the substantial selling from long-term holders, Bitcoin may remain trapped in its sideways pattern. This situation highlights the complex interplay between investor psychology, market structure, and external economic factors that continues to make cryptocurrency markets uniquely challenging to predict. As the global financial landscape continues to shift, Bitcoin’s ability to break free from its current constraints will provide valuable insight into its long-term viability as both a store of value and a risk asset.
📎 Related coverage from: cryptopotato.com