Bitcoin Stabilizes at $80K: Local Bottom Forming?

Following Bitcoin’s plunge to the $80,000 mark on November 21, the cryptocurrency has maintained stability above this threshold for several days, prompting analysis of whether this level represents a short-term bottom. According to CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman, on-chain data paints a picture of institutional redistribution and structural weakness. The data reveals that large whale investors—specifically those holding more than 10,000 BTC and the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC cohort—are primarily in a selling position. Carmelo Aleman stated that this behavior reflects ongoing profit-taking by institutions looking to reduce their risk exposure, leading to significant supply offloading into the market.

The distribution trend extends beyond institutional players to retail investors. Over the past 60 days, wallets holding between 0 to 1 BTC and 1 to 10 BTC have demonstrated net selling rather than accumulation, indicating a lack of purchasing support from the retail sector. This combined selling pressure from both whales and retail investors has contributed to Bitcoin’s recent downturn, with the cryptocurrency currently trading at $87,150—30% below its all-time high of $126,000 recorded earlier this year.

Amid the broader distribution trend, a contrasting pattern has emerged among mid-sized Bitcoin holders. Analysis from CryptoQuant shows that investors in the 100 to 1,000 BTC range appear to be acquiring steadily, while the 10 to 100 BTC group is showing consistent accumulation. This accumulation by mid-tier investors provides a counterbalance to the selling pressure from larger whales and retail participants.

According to Carmelo Aleman, this mid-sized investor accumulation is crucial for potential trend reversal. While Bitcoin has shown signs of stabilization with a rebound above $89,000 on late Monday, Aleman warned that definitive confirmation of a trend reversal remains heavily reliant on ongoing accumulation from these crucial investor cohorts. The continued distribution from the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC cohort prevents conclusive confirmation of a bottom formation, creating a market dynamic where opposing forces are currently in balance.

Beyond on-chain data, technical analysis provides additional context for Bitcoin’s potential trajectory. Analyst Ash Crypto has noted that Bitcoin is experiencing a hidden bullish divergence on the weekly timeframe, suggesting that selling pressure is easing and momentum is stabilizing. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) may soon reverse according to this analysis.

Ash Crypto emphasized that if this hidden bullish divergence is confirmed, it typically precedes a strong continuation rally. This technical perspective adds to the argument that BTC may be on the verge of a new upward trajectory, though confirmation requires sustained momentum and continued support from accumulating investor groups. The current market conditions have caused Bitcoin to erase all gains recorded across all time frames, including year-to-date, with a drop of roughly 9% during this period.

The combination of on-chain data showing mid-tier accumulation and technical indicators pointing to reduced selling pressure creates a compelling case for a potential local bottom formation. However, market participants remain cautious as the cryptocurrency seeks to establish a firm foundation above the $80,000 level before embarking on any sustained recovery toward its previous all-time highs.