Introduction
Bitcoin is flashing early revival signals after extending gains from weekend trading, currently hovering near $87,600 as market indicators point to declining seller momentum and a significant shift in options market sentiment from bearish to cautiously optimistic.
Key Points
- Bitcoin's 25-delta options skew rebounded sharply from -10.96 to -4.58, indicating reduced bearish sentiment and hedging activity
- Multiple Long Call Condor block trades appeared targeting strikes between $100,000-$118,000, suggesting institutional demand for upside exposure into late 2025
- Glassnode analysts note the market has shifted from aggressive selling to 'orderly de-risking' with stabilizing open interest and persistent ETF outflows
Market Recovery and Declining Seller Pressure
Bitcoin has climbed to approximately $87,600, representing a 2.5% increase from its weekend low of $85,550 according to CoinGecko data. This upward movement comes as crypto intelligence platform Glassnode reported declining seller momentum that, while remaining oversold, shows early signs of exhaustion. The market intelligence firm noted that stabilizing open interest, muted spot activity, and persistent exchange-traded fund outflows collectively indicate what analysts described as ‘a shift from aggressive selling to a more orderly de-risking phase.’
Further evidence of changing market dynamics comes from overnight activity showing an uptick in the spot cumulative volume delta amid a flattening Coinbase premium. According to market theory, this pattern suggests increased spot buying activity coupled with a decline in seller pressure. The combination of these technical indicators points toward a potential stabilization in Bitcoin’s price action after recent volatility, though analysts remain cautious about declaring a full recovery.
Options Market Sentiment Shift
The more optimistic outlook is clearly reflected in the options market, where sentiment has shifted dramatically from bearish to cautiously optimistic. This change is quantified by the 25-delta skew’s sharp rebound from -10.96 to -4.58. Market experts explain that when the skew drops, it indicates investors are buying puts and paying a premium for downside protection, while an uptick in skew signals these bearish or hedging bets are waning.
Options analytics platform Laevitas highlighted notable call option volume growth across the $100,000, $116,000, $112,000, and $118,000 strikes in a Monday tweet. The firm specifically noted that ‘the past 24 hours saw multiple Long Call Condor block trades, indicating demand for upside exposure into late 2025.’ A Long Call Condor is an options strategy involving buying four call options with the same expiry, typically used when investors believe an asset’s price will stay within a specific range.
This shift represents a notable departure from recent market behavior, where experts observed sustained put buying for downside protection as Bitcoin revisited the $80,000 level. The current options activity suggests institutional and large traders are positioning for potential upside while maintaining defined risk parameters through sophisticated strategies.
Analyst Perspectives and Key Levels
Ryan Yoon, senior analyst at Seoul-based Tiger Research, provided crucial context for Bitcoin’s potential path forward. ‘For Bitcoin to see further gains, it would first need to reclaim the $87,000 to $88,000 range,’ Yoon told Decrypt. He cautioned that ‘below this level, it’s just a relief rally with capped upside for bulls as investors are underwater,’ highlighting the importance of specific technical levels for confirming sustained recovery.
The near-term caution expressed by some analysts is being balanced by more optimistic institutional perspectives. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan posted to X on Monday after his call with a ‘$50 billion advisory firm,’ stating that ‘the institutions are patiently bullish and building conviction.’ This institutional perspective suggests that while retail traders might be cautious, larger market participants see longer-term value at current levels.
The market’s delicate balance will face significant tests from upcoming macroeconomic data releases, with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in December serving as the next major catalyst to determine Bitcoin’s direction. As the market navigates between technical resistance levels, shifting options sentiment, and macroeconomic pressures, traders are watching for confirmation that the current revival signs represent more than just a temporary relief rally.
📎 Related coverage from: decrypt.co
