Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Take Profits as BTC Nears $100K

On-chain data from CryptoQuant, analyzed by community analyst Maartunn, shows a significant behavioral shift among Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs)—investors who have held their coins for 155 days or less. As Bitcoin staged a recovery rally, climbing above $97,000 earlier in the week, the 24-hour sum of STH exchange deposit transactions made at a profit skyrocketed, reaching a recent high of 41,800 BTC. This metric, which tracks tokens moved to exchanges from wallets where they were held at an unrealized gain, indicates a clear intent to realize profits.

Concurrently, exchange inflows from STHs transacting at a loss have dwindled to a low of 1,800 BTC. This stark divergence—between surging profit-taking and minimal loss-selling—suggests the current selling pressure is largely opportunistic rather than driven by panic or capitulation. Historically, the STH cohort has been considered the “weak hands” of the market, prone to reacting quickly to price volatility. Their recent activity aligns with this characterization, as they capitalize on price gains to harvest profits following a period of downturn.

Despite this wave of profit-taking, the broader short-term holder cohort finds itself in a state of net unrealized loss. This is because Bitcoin’s price, which has since retraced to around $94,600, remains below a key on-chain metric: the STH Realized Price. As highlighted by Maartunn, this metric, currently valued at $99,412, represents the average cost basis or break-even price for all coins acquired within the last 155 days.

The significance of this level is profound. Bitcoin’s spot price fell below the STH Realized Price during the market drawdown in the fourth quarter of 2025 and has yet to reclaim it sustainably. The latest rally brought the price close, but not above, this psychological and financial threshold. For the average short-term holder, this means that while some individuals who bought at lower prices are now taking profits, the collective supply held by STHs is, on average, still held at a loss. This creates a formidable overhead resistance zone near $99,400, where selling pressure could intensify as more holders seek to break even.

The current on-chain data paints a picture of a market at a crossroads. The aggressive profit-taking by a segment of STHs demonstrates that there is willing selling supply even during a recovery, which can act as a headwind for further price appreciation in the near term. This activity contributed to Bitcoin pulling back from its weekly highs above $97,000.

However, the data also reveals a nuanced sentiment. The minimal loss-selling indicates a lack of distress or forced liquidation from this cohort at current levels. Furthermore, the behavior stands in contrast to that of long-term holders (LTHs), who are historically known as “diamond hands” for their tendency to hold through volatility. The market’s trajectory may hinge on whether Bitcoin can muster the strength to decisively break and hold above the STH Realized Price of $99,412. A sustained move above this level would flip the average short-term holder into a state of profit, potentially reducing sell-side pressure and altering the market’s supply dynamics.

For now, the analysis from CryptoQuant underscores that while the rally has provided a lucrative exit for some, the path toward a broader recovery for recent investors remains contingent on Bitcoin conquering this key on-chain resistance level. The actions of short-term holders will continue to be a critical barometer for gauging market strength and potential pivot points.