Bitcoin Reset Signals 30% Surge, Altcoins 150% Gains

Analytics firm Swissblock has identified what could be a crucial turning point for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Through their proprietary “Aggregated Impulse Signal,” the research group has detected patterns that historically mark cycle bottoms, with the indicator returning to zero suggesting that selling pressure has been exhausted and renewed upside momentum is beginning. This signal has proven remarkably reliable in 2024, marking all seven major market lows this year, each followed by substantial price recoveries.

The historical performance of this signal provides compelling evidence for the current setup. According to Swissblock’s analysis, each of the seven previous triggers in 2024 preceded Bitcoin climbing 20 to 30%, while altcoins surged between 50 to 150%. The current market conditions show 22% of altcoins displaying negative impulse, falling squarely within the historical 15 to 25% bottom formation zone that has consistently preceded major rallies.

Swissblock explains this phenomenon through market cycle dynamics: “Markets move in cycles of stress and recovery. When stress peaks, short-term traders are forced to sell at a loss. Capitulation stress often marks the end of downside phases, setting the stage for recovery.” This pattern of forced selling by short-term traders exhausting panic creates ideal conditions for new buyers to enter the market, establishing the foundation for the next upward move.

Additional confirmation of the market reset comes from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, which reports that Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has cooled to a level of 2.0. This metric, which compares market value to realized value, has historically represented a mid-cycle reset rather than a bear market signal. The current consolidation phase appears to be a healthy digestion period that typically precedes the next leg up in Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Perhaps more importantly, long-term Bitcoin holders have significantly reduced their profit-taking behavior, creating tighter supply conditions that historically precede substantial price appreciation. This pattern of holder behavior mirrors what occurred in both 2017 and 2020, right before major bull runs began. The combination of reduced selling pressure from long-term holders and the MVRV ratio returning to historical mid-cycle levels suggests the market structure is strengthening for the next upward move.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $114,700, showing modest gains of 0.6% over 24 hours and 2.1% over the past week according to CoinGecko data. Despite a 1.5% decline over two weeks, Bitcoin has maintained a 6.7% monthly gain and remains nearly 80% higher year-over-year. The cryptocurrency currently sits 7.7% below its August all-time high, with analysts emphasizing the importance of holding above the $110,000 support level while eyeing $120,000 as the next significant resistance.

The broader cryptocurrency market shows mixed performance, with Ethereum facing particular challenges after experiencing heavy selling pressure and a 13% decline last week. Analysts indicate that Ethereum needs to reclaim the $4,200 resistance band to return to previous highs. Meanwhile, Cardano (ADA) and Ripple’s XRP have also lost ground, while Binance Coin (BNB) has demonstrated relative strength among large-cap tokens despite the recent market correction.

Looking forward, the convergence of resilient liquidity, strong long-term holder conviction, and historical cycle signals points toward a bullish conclusion to 2025. Projections from institutions including Standard Chartered and market observers like Mr. Wall Street suggest Bitcoin could reach between $140,000 and $170,000 before the current cycle peaks. This optimistic outlook is grounded in the same market dynamics that have historically preceded major cryptocurrency rallies, with Swissblock’s impulse signal providing the most immediate catalyst for renewed upward momentum.