Bitcoin Recovery Key Before Altcoin Bets: AVAX, NEAR, SEI Analysis

The cryptocurrency market finds itself at a pivotal juncture, with Bitcoin potentially forming a local bottom after recent price declines. However, the analysis suggests that this potential recovery is far from certain, with the possibility of further downside to ‘shake out the longs’ that are betting on a sustained rebound. This uncertainty creates a challenging environment for altcoin traders, who must carefully assess Bitcoin’s direction over the next day or two before considering positions in alternative cryptocurrencies.

The interdependence between Bitcoin and altcoins remains a fundamental market dynamic. When BTC experiences volatility or uncertainty, altcoins typically face amplified effects. The current technical setup emphasizes that taking positions in altcoins like AVAX, NEAR, and SEI while Bitcoin’s direction remains unclear would be premature. The analysis indicates that traders should prioritize monitoring BTC’s price action above all else, as a confirmed Bitcoin recovery would provide a more favorable backdrop for altcoin investments.

Avalanche’s price action reveals concerning technical signals despite a modest 2.4% gain on what the analysis describes as ‘a very uncertain trading day.’ The AVAX price has stalled just below the critical $36 horizontal resistance level, failing to establish a higher high formation. This failure to break through resistance suggests the cryptocurrency may be preparing for another corrective impulse downward.

Compounding these concerns, both the 1-hour and 4-hour Stochastic RSI indicators are trending downward, indicating weakening momentum. The analysis characterizes taking a long position in AVAX under these conditions as ‘a very risky move.’ The technical setup points toward a potential retracement to the $30 horizontal support level, where a stronger bounce would be more likely to occur. A break below the $29.40 level would establish a lower low, signaling more significant bearish momentum.

NEAR Protocol presents another concerning technical picture, with the price appearing to fall back after briefly emerging above the $3 resistance level. Although this level temporarily functioned as support, the analysis suggests NEAR may be forming a lower low that could repel the price back under $3, turning it into resistance once again. This pattern represents a classic bearish signal that often precedes further declines.

The analysis identifies approximately $2.80 as a potential level for long positions if a retracement occurs, but emphasizes that bulls have limited time to reverse the current downward momentum. The failure to maintain support above $3 indicates underlying weakness in NEAR’s price structure. For traders considering positions in NEAR Protocol, waiting for a confirmed break above the critical $3 level with sustained volume would provide a more technically sound entry point than attempting to catch a falling knife.

Sei faces perhaps the most technically bearish setup among the three altcoins analyzed. The SEI price appears poised for rejection from a small descending trendline while simultaneously sitting at a resistance level. More significantly, SEI has dipped back below its main descending trendline that originated in March 2024, which the analysis describes as forming ‘the main trendline for the whole of this bull market.’

The formation of two additional lower lows after breaking this significant trendline represents ‘a very bad sign’ for SEI’s medium-term prospects. For any chance of recovery in the longer timeframe, bulls would need to accomplish three challenging technical feats: break the main trendline again, push through the $31 horizontal resistance, and establish a higher high. The analysis concludes that even for short-term trading, ‘SEI does not look tradeable’ given the current technical configuration.

The collective technical analysis of AVAX, NEAR, and SEI paints a cautious picture for altcoin traders. All three cryptocurrencies show signs of rejection at key resistance levels, with momentum indicators suggesting further downside potential. This aligns with the overarching theme that Bitcoin’s direction must be confirmed before altcoin positions should be considered.

Traders should monitor Bitcoin’s price action closely over the next 24-48 hours for clearer directional signals. The analysis emphasizes that premature entry into altcoins while BTC remains uncertain exposes traders to unnecessary risk. For those considering positions in AVAX, NEAR, or SEI specifically, waiting for confirmed breaks above their respective resistance levels with supporting volume would provide more technically sound entry points than attempting to anticipate bottoms in currently weak technical setups.