Bitcoin Rallies as U.S. Government Shutdown Nears End

The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant rally following Sunday’s key Senate vote to advance a bill reopening the U.S. government, a procedural step that has buoyed investor sentiment after 40 days of political gridlock. Bitcoin climbed 4.4% over 24 hours to reach an intraday high of $106,491, while the total crypto market capitalization surged 4.7% to $3.68 trillion according to CoinGecko data. Analysts immediately identified the potential resolution of the government shutdown as a major catalyst for the upward movement.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, told Decrypt that ‘if the U.S. government ends the shutdown, it would likely restore short-term risk appetite across markets, a positive for Bitcoin and crypto.’ He emphasized that ‘the resolution would ease liquidity concerns and improve investor sentiment, potentially extending Bitcoin’s recent rebound.’ This sentiment was echoed by Shivam Thakral, CEO of BuyUcoin, who noted that ‘the resolution would restore investor confidence, reduce uncertainty around federal spending and liquidity, and improve overall risk sentiment.’

The growing optimism is clearly reflected in prediction markets, where users on Myriad—launched by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan—assigned a 91% chance that the shutdown would end by November 15, a statistic that has more than doubled since November 9. Concurrently, Bitcoin’s chances of hitting $115,000 improved to 68% after surging from nearly 55% on Sunday, indicating strong correlation between political resolution and crypto market confidence.

Additional market enthusiasm came from a Truth Social post by U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting that ‘a dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.’ This raised prospects of a repeat of the 2021 stimulus checks that saw significant liquidity flow into the crypto market. Ryan Lee of Bitget explained that such measures ‘fuel spending, support corporate earnings, and increase confidence… all of which lift risk appetite across equities and crypto markets alike.’

However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent subsequently tempered expectations during an appearance on ABC’s ‘This Week’ with host George Stephanopoulos, stating that the tariff ‘dividend’ could come in the form of tax cuts rather than direct payments. Bessent noted that ‘it could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president’s agenda.’ Despite this clarification, experts said the potential for renewed fiscal stimulus has clearly improved investor mood, as any form of economic support would inject liquidity directly into the economy.

The institutional perspective remains crucial to the ongoing rally. Shivam Thakral of BuyUcoin highlighted that ‘an end to the shutdown could also support the dollar’s stability and Treasury flows, easing volatility and encouraging institutional participation in digital assets.’ This institutional confidence is seen as a key component for sustaining the current momentum, particularly given the market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic stability and regulatory clarity.

Looking ahead, experts are watching for a confirmed resolution to the shutdown to validate the rally’s sustainability. Jay Jo, Senior Research Analyst at Tiger Research, told Decrypt that ‘we expect further gains if the U.S. ends the shutdown by mid-November,’ adding that stimulus checks, if distributed, ‘should lift sentiment by adding liquidity and boosting risk appetite. That liquidity could flow into risk-on assets, including crypto.’

Price projections have become increasingly optimistic amid the improving macroeconomic backdrop. Shivam Thakral forecasts Bitcoin could retest the $120,000 to $150,000 range by year-end, though his views remain contingent on favorable macro conditions including the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish bias and improved liquidity. He cautioned that ‘sticky inflation, a stronger dollar, or renewed geopolitical tension could limit upside momentum,’ highlighting the delicate balance of factors influencing crypto markets.

The range of expert predictions reflects both optimism and caution. Tiger Research maintains a $200,000 year-end target for Bitcoin, while Bitget’s Ryan Lee forecasts a range of $90,000 to $160,000, driven by post-election optimism and the likelihood of additional rate cuts. These projections underscore the market’s sensitivity to both political resolution and monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve’s stance remaining a critical variable in determining whether Bitcoin can achieve these ambitious targets.