Bitcoin Price Warning: Analyst Predicts 20% Drop to $76,000

Crypto analyst Roman has outlined a scenario where Bitcoin’s price could face a sharp decline to approximately $76,000. His analysis, shared on social media platform X, emphasizes that the current market structure shows no evidence of a sustainable price bottom, with downside risk remaining dominant. Roman’s chart analysis reveals that Bitcoin, while trading above $90,000, continues to struggle below the previous resistance area near $96,000, with each attempt to push higher being firmly rejected.

The projected path lower, as illustrated on his chart, suggests an initial drop back to the mid-$80,000s, followed by a deeper slide into a target range between $78,500 and $75,000. This hand-drawn projection indicates that any brief relief rally could be swiftly followed by an accelerated decline once key support levels break. Roman stresses that the price is still trading within a broader bearish trend, suggesting the recent consolidation may merely be a pause before the next leg down.

A critical component of Roman’s bearish outlook is the behavior of trading volume. He notes that the volume during Bitcoin’s recent rebound has been noticeably weak, a pattern he previously identified as typical of holiday-driven pumps that lack substance. This absence of strong buying pressure during price consolidations is viewed as a significant warning sign that undermines the potential for a genuine recovery.

Further supporting his forecast, Roman references key technical indicators. He explains that Bitcoin’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) became extremely oversold after the cryptocurrency dropped roughly 40% from its all-time high. The subsequent consolidation has allowed these indicators to reset. However, the analyst sees the lack of robust buying interest accompanying this reset as a bearish signal. For a true bullish reversal to be confirmed, Roman asserts the market would need to demonstrate rising volume and a clear pattern of higher highs, neither of which are currently evident on the daily chart.

Roman’s $76,000 Bitcoin crash forecast is a follow-up to his previous assessments that the leading cryptocurrency is in a bear market. He concludes that the longer-term trend remains decisively bearish, with the market continuing to form lower highs within a declining price range. This pattern reinforces the view that the current price action is corrective within a larger downtrend rather than the foundation for a new upward cycle.

Until clear reversal signals materialize—specifically, sustained buying pressure with rising volume and the establishment of higher highs—the analyst advises traders to treat any short-term upside moves with caution. In his view, these should be interpreted as temporary corrections within a bearish framework, not the inception of a fresh bull run. The overall technical picture, combining weak structure, anemic volume, and reset but unsupported indicators, paints a cautious outlook for Bitcoin in the near term.