Bitcoin Price Bottom Signal: Analyst Predicts Bullish Reversal

The core of Burak Kesmeci’s bullish prediction rests on a sophisticated on-chain metric: the Bitcoin 90-Day Market Price vs Realized Price Gradient Oscillator. This indicator measures the distance between Bitcoin’s current market price and its realized price—essentially the average price at which all coins in the 90-day cohort were last moved on-chain. When this metric shows a positive reading, it indicates the market price is rising faster than the average cost basis, signaling growing bullish momentum. Conversely, a negative reading reveals the market price has fallen significantly below what recent buyers paid on average, indicating bearish pressure and potential market cooling.

According to Kesmeci’s analysis shared on November 8, this critical metric has plunged to -1.27 standard deviations (STDV), representing an extreme deviation from historical norms. This reading suggests Bitcoin’s price momentum has reached what the analyst describes as a state of ‘extreme cooldown,’ where current investors are acquiring Bitcoin at prices substantially below what recent buyers paid. The significance of this development lies in what it reveals about market dynamics: when prices fall this far below the average acquisition cost, it typically indicates that bearish pressure has become exhausted, creating conditions ripe for reversal.

Kesmeci’s analysis gains credibility from clear historical patterns. The analyst specifically notes that periods where this metric has fallen below -1 STDV have consistently preceded the end of downtrends and the beginning of significant price expansions. Recent market behavior provides compelling evidence for this pattern. In April 2024, when the metric dropped below this critical threshold, Bitcoin’s price surged from approximately $82,000 to $100,000, representing a substantial upward movement that rewarded investors who recognized the signal.

The pattern repeated itself in July 2024, when another dip below -1 STDV preceded a price expansion from $108,000 to $124,000. These historical occurrences demonstrate that the current -1.27 STDV reading isn’t merely a statistical anomaly but part of a recurring market pattern that has reliably signaled major turning points. The consistency of this signal across multiple market cycles strengthens the case for an imminent reversal, suggesting that the current price weakness may represent a final capitulation before a new upward trend emerges.

As of the latest data, Bitcoin trades at approximately $102,023, reflecting a slight 0.94% decline over the past day. This places the cryptocurrency in what Kesmeci identifies as the $100,000 support zone—a critical level that has historically attracted significant buying interest. The current price represents a substantial discount compared to the average cost basis of recent buyers, creating what analysts describe as a potential accumulation opportunity for strategic investors.

The market dynamics suggest that if additional investors begin purchasing Bitcoin around current levels, it could lead to complete absorption of the remaining bearish pressure. This scenario would align with historical patterns where extreme readings in the Gradient Oscillator marked the transition from distribution to accumulation phases. For traders and investors, the current setup presents a potential inflection point where risk-reward ratios may favor long positions, particularly given the historical precedent of significant price expansions following similar metric readings.

While past performance never guarantees future results, the combination of extreme metric readings, historical precedent, and current price action creates a compelling case for cautious optimism. The market appears to be testing a significant support level while showing technical characteristics that have previously marked major bottoms. For Bitcoin investors navigating the current volatility, these on-chain signals provide valuable context for understanding where the market stands in its broader cycle and what might come next.