Bitcoin Pre-Euphoria Signal Hints at Major Rally Ahead

According to analysis from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has entered a market stage known as Pre-Euphoria, a signal that has historically preceded the cryptocurrency’s most powerful bull runs. CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk identified this phase using a metric that tracks the 30-day difference between the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratios of long-term and short-term holders. This specific pattern appeared before the parabolic price surges in 2013, 2017, and 2021, suggesting the market is building momentum for a significant upward move.

The current data shows that while MVRV levels are rising, they remain below the overheated ranges seen at the peaks of previous cycles. “We’re not at overheated levels yet,” Crazzyblockk noted, indicating that the market is likely still in the early part of its upward trajectory. This Pre-Euphoria zone typically involves a period of accumulation that lasts for several months before prices break out decisively toward new highs. The current cycle, since its 2022 low, is mirroring this historical structure, with the MVRV spread trending upward as long-term holders realize gains while short-term holders catch up.

The bullish long-term narrative is currently being tested by immediate price action. Market analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin had been trading within a narrow range, bounded by strong support at $114,250 and resistance at $117,290. However, this support level was breached on Monday morning when BTC experienced a flash crash to $112,000, and the price remained below $113,000 at the time of the CryptoPotato report. A confirmed breakout above the $117,290 resistance is seen as a critical milestone for confirming a bullish shift in momentum.

Contrasting the optimistic on-chain signals, short-term technical analysis paints a more cautious picture. Analyst Captain Faibik pointed to a broken rising wedge pattern on the daily chart, which has now given way to a forming bearish flag. “Another bearish wave incoming soon so be ready,” Faibik warned, noting that Bitcoin has already declined 15% since early August, a move that trapped many late buyers. This technical deterioration raises the risk of further downside in the near term, even as the broader cycle remains constructive.

The current market dynamic presents a classic tension between long-term cycle analysis and short-term price risk. The Pre-Euphoria signal from CryptoQuant suggests that the foundational conditions for a major rally are falling into place, mirroring the build-up phases of past cycles. For investors, this implies that significant upside potential may lie ahead, but not without navigating periods of volatility.

Captain Faibik added another layer of complexity, observing that some large holders are already shifting exposure into altcoins while Bitcoin’s price remains uncertain. This behavior highlights how seasoned participants might be positioning themselves for a broader market move, even as they manage short-term risk in BTC. For the market to enter the full-blown euphoric phase historically associated with cycle tops, a sustained break above key resistance levels and a significant increase in market-wide FOMO would be required—conditions that have not yet been met.

In conclusion, Bitcoin stands at a crossroads. The compelling historical precedent of the Pre-Euphoria phase offers a bullish long-term outlook, suggesting the current period could be a final accumulation zone before a powerful rally. However, traders must contend with clear bearish technical patterns and key support level breaks that indicate rocky terrain in the immediate future. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the short-term pressure gives way to the powerful cycle dynamics that analysts are watching closely.