Bitcoin Plunges Below $93K, Erasing 2025 Gains

Bitcoin’s precipitous decline saw it trading at $92,123 on Monday, representing a 2.3% drop in the past day and a staggering 13% weekly loss that completely wiped out its 2025 gains. According to crypto price aggregator CoinGecko, this marks the first time Bitcoin has traded below $93,000 in nearly seven months, signaling a significant shift in market dynamics. The breakdown was accompanied by surging trading volume, which more than doubled to $114 billion according to CoinGlass data, indicating heightened market activity and potential capitulation.

Analysts from Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital identified the break below the 50-week moving average as a critical turning point. “The break below the 50-week moving average and a weekly close under $100K for the first time since May 4 have cemented a more cautious tone across digital asset markets,” the firm’s analysts wrote. This technical breakdown has triggered substantial market liquidations, with approximately $335 million worth of Bitcoin derivatives contracts liquidated in the past day alone, contributing to total crypto market liquidations of $725 million over the last 24 hours.

The current downturn has reignited debates about Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle pattern. Since Bitcoin’s inception, the cryptocurrency has experienced halving events roughly every four years, typically followed by significant price drawdowns about 12 to 18 months after each halving. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, placing Bitcoin near the end of that window in October. While many analysts previously declared the four-year cycle complete, the current market weakness has led some to reconsider whether the cycle has merely been delayed rather than concluded.

QCP Capital analysts highlighted how narrative-driven markets are reacting to this uncertainty. “In a space where narrative often drives price, talk of the four-year cycle nearing its end has only added to the prevailing bearish sentiment,” they noted. This sentiment shift comes despite the recent resolution of the U.S. government shutdown, which ended last week after becoming the longest shutdown on record at 43 days. The persistence of bearish conditions despite this political resolution underscores the depth of current market concerns.

Technical analysts are closely watching the $92,000 level, which QCP Capital identifies as crucial support. This price level served as a lower bound late last year and early this year, and its current test coincides with an unfilled CME gap—a discrepancy between Bitcoin’s spot price and the closing price of CME Bitcoin derivatives contracts from Friday afternoon. “The 92K region also coincides with an unfilled CME gap, increasing the odds of a short-term technical bounce if tested,” the QCP analysts wrote.

However, recovery prospects appear limited by multiple factors. The analysts cautioned that “dense overhead supply could limit the strength of any rebound,” while “rising macro uncertainties and a sluggish return of liquidity to crypto markets” maintain market fragility. This assessment is reflected in prediction markets, where users on Myriad—a platform owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan—now show overwhelming pessimism. Market participants currently assign a 63% probability that Bitcoin will fall to $85,000 before it can climb back to $115,000, representing a 30% increase in bearish sentiment over the past day.

The convergence of technical breakdown, cycle uncertainty, and macroeconomic concerns has created a perfect storm for Bitcoin investors. With critical support at $92,000 now under pressure and market sentiment turning increasingly negative, the path forward appears fraught with challenges despite potential for short-term technical rebounds from current oversold conditions.