Bitcoin Plunge Below $70K Sparks Fears of Deeper Fall to $60K

The severity of Bitcoin’s current decline is underscored by its breach of a critical long-term technical level. As highlighted by renowned analyst Ali Martinez, BTC has fallen below its 100-week simple moving average (SMA). Martinez points to a grim historical pattern: since 2015, every instance where Bitcoin has lost this key average has resulted in a failure to reclaim it promptly, leading to a further descent toward the 200-week SMA. Based on this analysis, Martinez’s chart suggests a potential drop to the $57,600 region.

This bearish technical outlook is compounded by other key support levels giving way. Prior to the current crash, Martinez identified $77,086 as a crucial floor. With that level decisively broken, he noted that the next significant supports lie at $60,176 and, more alarmingly, $47,824. The breakdown below $70,000 validates this pessimistic roadmap, placing the $60,000 zone firmly in the crosshairs of market bears.

The bearish sentiment extends beyond technical charts, with several analysts forecasting even steeper declines. The trader using the X handle Hardy recently envisioned a “massive decline” in the coming months, with a potential bottom set around $30,000. Meanwhile, PlanB, the anonymous creator of the influential Stock-to-Flow model, outlined multiple scenarios, including a collapse to $25,000 or a retreat to the $50,000-$60,000 range.

In a survey posted to X, PlanB asked followers for their assessment. The results revealed a market bracing for significant pain: nearly half of participants viewed a plunge to $50,000-$60,000 as the most plausible outcome, while only 15% predicted a catastrophic nosedive to $25,000. This crowd-sourced pessimism is mirrored in tangible on-chain data. According to analytics firm CryptoQuant, the amount of Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges has been rising for weeks.

This increase in exchange reserves is a classic bearish signal, as it typically indicates investors are moving their holdings from private wallets to trading platforms, often as a preparatory step to sell. This behavioral shift suggests a growing cohort of market participants is losing conviction in holding through the downturn, adding fundamental selling pressure to the technical breakdown.

Despite the overwhelming negative momentum, one key technical indicator suggests the sell-off may have become overextended in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the speed and magnitude of price changes, is currently flashing a rare signal. An RSI reading below 30 typically indicates an asset is oversold and may be due for a corrective bounce. As of the latest data, Bitcoin’s RSI stands at roughly 19, a level that historically has often preceded a temporary resurgence in price.

This deeply oversold condition presents a dilemma for the market. While the fundamental and technical narratives from analysts like Ali Martinez and data from CryptoQuant point toward further downside, the extreme RSI reading suggests that any positive catalyst or shift in sentiment could trigger a sharp, albeit potentially short-lived, rebound. For now, however, with the price at a 14-month low and key supports shattered, the path of least resistance remains downward, leaving investors to weigh the risk of deeper losses against the possibility of a fleeting technical recovery.