Bitcoin Options Bet $118K Cap by 2025, No Moonshot

Approximately 20,000 Bitcoin in notional call condor block trades were executed on Deribit, structured to profit if the cryptocurrency settles between $100,000 and $118,000 by December 2025. This complex options strategy involves buying four call options with the same expiry but at different strike prices, typically employed when investors anticipate a rally but believe the upside is capped. The massive $2 billion positioning reflects what GreeksLive chief researcher Adam Chu described as “whale-driven repositioning” ahead of monthly expiries, highlighting how large players are adjusting their exposure.

Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at crypto market maker Wintermute, noted in a Tuesday tweet that “the previously consensus view of a year-end ‘Santa rally’ has been priced out of the markets.” This sentiment was echoed by Chu, who told Decrypt that “under the current market conditions, the expectations for a new high in the fourth quarter have completely dissipated, and a bearish sentiment has taken hold.” The call condor trades represent a significant shift in market positioning away from euphoric surge expectations toward a more range-bound ascent.

Despite the bullish positioning within a defined range, analysts emphasize that three key signals for a true market bottom remain absent. Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Derive, told Decrypt that the market has not yet met these bottoming conditions. He cited uptrending 30 and 180-day implied volatility despite prices stabilizing, meaning traders are still paying premiums for panic protection against future price swings.

The current “backwardation” in the volatility term structure—where short-term volatility is more expensive than long-term—is what Dawson described as “a classic sign of distressed markets.” A return to “contango,” where long-dated implied volatilities are higher, would signal that markets have settled. Meanwhile, the skew has been deeply negative since the October 10 flash crash, and while there has been a slight recovery over the past week, Dawson added that “there’s quite some way to go before we see skew properly revert” to a neutral state.

Ostrovskis had previously highlighted these same signals, noting that “for those looking to time a genuine low, the term structure will likely serve as the key signal,” specifically requiring “implied volatility to drop off, contango to return to the term structure, and skew to drift back toward neutral.” The combination of these missing indicators suggests professional traders are positioning for continued volatility rather than a straight-line recovery.

The current market dynamics point to continued uncertainty despite the substantial options positioning. GreeksLive’s Chu emphasized that “market panic has not fully subsided,” adding that “the final month of the year remains risky, with volatility expectations still elevated.” This persistent caution is reflected in Bitcoin’s current trading price of $87,400, down 0.3% over 24 hours according to CoinGecko data, showing stabilization but lacking strong upward momentum.

Dawson broadly agreed with the capped outlook presented by the call condor trades, stating he expects Bitcoin to be range-bound between $100,000 and $118,000 for the rest of 2025, with a move above $120,000 more likely well into the new year. This professional consensus suggests that while the massive options trade indicates expectation of significant appreciation from current levels, it also reflects conviction that any rally will be contained within a specific range rather than accelerating into a parabolic move.

The sophisticated positioning through crypto derivatives like those on Deribit demonstrates how institutional and whale traders are using complex strategies to express nuanced market views. Rather than simple directional bets, the call condor structure allows participants to profit from a controlled ascent while protecting against both stagnation and excessive euphoria, reflecting a market that has matured beyond binary bull/bear positioning to more sophisticated risk management approaches.