Bitcoin Not Pumpable Now: Market Cap vs Realized Cap Divergence

At the heart of CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju’s analysis are two distinct measures of Bitcoin’s valuation: the Market Cap and the Realized Cap. The Market Cap is the straightforward calculation of total supply multiplied by the current spot price, representing the present value held by all investors. The Realized Cap, however, is a more nuanced on-chain model. It calculates the cryptocurrency’s total valuation by assuming each coin’s ‘real’ value is the price at which it was last moved on the blockchain. In essence, the Realized Cap represents the total capital that has actually flowed into the Bitcoin network over time.

Historically, changes in the Realized Cap—effectively tracking capital inflows and outflows—drive changes in the Market Cap. However, as the provided chart illustrates, this relationship has broken down. In mid-2025, the growth rate difference between the two metrics was positive, meaning the Market Cap was rising faster than the capital invested. This trend reversed sharply in the last quarter of 2025, with the indicator turning negative as the market crashed. Throughout 2026, this negative divergence has only deepened alongside Bitcoin’s continued price decline, which now sees it trading around $68,500, down over 12% in the past week.

Ki Young Ju underscores the severity of the current situation by contrasting the market’s behavior in 2024 with that of 2025. The difference is stark. In 2024, the market exhibited a strong multiplier effect: a relatively modest $10 billion increase in the Realized Cap, signaling new capital investment, was enough to catalyze a $26 billion surge in the Market Cap. This is a classic sign of a healthy, bullish market where new money has a leveraged impact on overall valuation.

That dynamic evaporated completely in 2025. Despite a staggering $308 billion in capital flowing into Bitcoin—as measured by the increase in the Realized Cap—the Market Cap did not rise; it actually fell by $98 billion. ‘Selling pressure is too heavy for any multiplier effect,’ Ju explained. This data point is the core of his argument that Bitcoin is not currently ‘pumpable.’ It indicates that for every dollar of new investment entering the market, more than a dollar’s worth of selling was occurring, leading to a net decrease in total market value despite massive inflows.

Adding further context to the heavy selling pressure is the recent behavior of a specific cohort of large investors. As highlighted by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn, ‘New Whales’ on the Bitcoin network have been capitulating. This group is defined as investors who entered the market within the past 155 days and hold balances exceeding 1,000 BTC.

These recent, large-scale entrants have been particularly vulnerable during the price drawdown, realizing massive losses. A significant spike in this loss-taking occurred on February 5th, amounting to a staggering $1.46 billion in a single day. The capitulation of these New Whales represents a potent source of the selling pressure that Ju’s analysis identifies, as recent investors are forced to liquidate positions at a loss, further weighing down the Market Cap despite ongoing capital inflows.