Bitcoin May Dip Below $100K Before $200K Rally: StanChart

Bitcoin is currently weathering what Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick describes as a ‘fear-driven selloff,’ with the cryptocurrency falling roughly 12% from its all-time high of $126,000 over the past 16 days. According to Kendrick, the global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, ‘a dip below $100,000 seems inevitable, although the dump may be short-lived.’ This potential decline comes as investors react to developments between the U.S. and China over tariffs and trade, creating market uncertainty that has rocked the digital asset.

Despite the near-term bearish outlook, Kendrick confirmed to Decrypt that his year-end price target of $200,000 remains unchanged, suggesting Bitcoin could nearly double in value in the coming months. The analyst noted that if Bitcoin’s price does enter five-digit territory, it may be the ‘last time’ it falls below this psychological barrier. However, he acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding how far the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization will fall ‘before finding a base,’ highlighting the volatile nature of current market conditions.

Bitcoin was trading at approximately $108,200 on Wednesday, according to CoinGecko data, having plunged as low as $104,800 since peaking over two weeks ago. This isn’t the first tariff-related downturn for Bitcoin this year – in April, the asset fell as low as $76,300 after the White House unveiled ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on most nations, establishing a pattern of sensitivity to geopolitical trade developments.

Kendrick noted that gold, historically considered a safe-haven asset, has outperformed Bitcoin in recent months, but Tuesday’s market action showed signs of this dynamic potentially breaking down. The precious metal experienced its largest daily drop in over a decade, with gold’s price slipping to around $4,075 per ounce on Wednesday from a record $4,381 per ounce just days before. This sharp decline coincided with what Kendrick described as a ‘strong intra-day bounce in Bitcoin,’ suggesting a possible ‘sell gold, buy Bitcoin’ flow among investors.

The analyst expressed optimism about this development, stating: ‘Medium-term I expect more of this, and further such evidence would be constructive for a Bitcoin low being formed.’ This potential capital rotation from traditional safe-haven assets to cryptocurrency represents a significant shift in market behavior that could support Bitcoin’s recovery and subsequent rally toward Kendrick’s $200,000 target.

Historical data provides additional context for Bitcoin’s potential recovery. According to CoinGlass, October and November have historically been Bitcoin’s strongest months, with the asset rising 19.8% and 46% on average since 2013. This seasonal pattern has led market observers to coin the term ‘Uptober,’ though Kendrick and other analysts caution that Bitcoin’s market has changed drastically in recent years, with increased institutional participation potentially altering traditional seasonal patterns.

The current market volatility extends beyond cryptocurrency, with traditional assets also reacting to geopolitical developments and economic indicators. On Tuesday, analysts told Decrypt that Bitcoin was outperforming gold as geopolitical tensions eased and companies notched strong third-quarter earnings on Wall Street. However, one analyst pointed to an inflation report expected on Friday as a potential wildcard that could influence market direction across asset classes.

The trade tensions between the U.S. and China represent just one facet of a complex global economic landscape. While China remains the U.S.’s largest trading partner, the Trump administration has been working to strike deals with multiple countries with large manufacturing bases. According to local media outlet Mint, India may soon reach an agreement with the U.S. that could curtail oil purchases from Russia, illustrating the interconnected nature of global trade relationships and their market impacts.

Meanwhile, the price of crude oil, which is correlated with expectations of economic growth, rose 2.3% to $58.5 a barrel, suggesting some optimism about global economic prospects despite ongoing trade tensions. This mixed picture across asset classes – with gold weakening, oil strengthening, and cryptocurrency experiencing volatility – reflects the complex interplay of factors currently influencing global markets as investors navigate uncertainty while positioning for potential opportunities.