Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Show Early Capitulation Signs

The Long-Term Holder SOPR is a crucial on-chain metric that measures whether Bitcoin moved on the blockchain is being sold at a profit or a loss. A value above 1.0 indicates profit-taking, while a drop below 1.0 signals capitulation, where holders are liquidating positions at a loss. According to analysis shared by market watcher Darkfost, this metric for Bitcoin held for more than six months briefly slipped under this threshold. This behavior is typically associated with bear market phases and points to selling pressure from what analysts term ‘younger’ long-term holders—those who accumulated BTC within the last 9 months and are now in the red.

This development is significant because investors holding BTC for extended periods have historically provided stability during price corrections. Their willingness to sell, even tentatively, suggests a potential shift in sentiment following months of accumulation. While the 30-day average LTH SOPR remains positive at 1.18, it sits well below the annual average near 2.0, reflecting a broader decline in realized profits across the cohort. The move below 1.0, though isolated, is a noteworthy early warning sign that the resolve of some long-term investors is being tested.

The strain suggested by the SOPR data is occurring alongside a notable reduction in positions by Bitcoin’s largest investors. Addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC—often referred to as whales—have parted with approximately 220,000 BTC over the past year. This represents the fastest rate of decline in their collective holdings since early 2023, adding a layer of substantive selling pressure to the market. The combination of early long-term holder capitulation and whale distribution creates a challenging backdrop for BTC’s price.

However, the current market narrative is far from one-sided. While the SOPR hints at underlying strain, other analysts are identifying potentially constructive technical patterns. Chartist Egrag Crypto has highlighted a ‘hidden bullish divergence’ on Bitcoin’s weekly chart, where the price forms higher lows while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator makes lower lows. This pattern can sometimes precede a continuation of the prior uptrend. Furthermore, the Sell-Side Risk Ratio, which measures the scale of profits and losses being realized, has returned to levels last seen in October 2023. This implies that the current distribution is happening with less conviction, potentially softening its bearish impact.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s immediate path appears contingent on a decisive break from its current trading range. Over the past week, BTC has been confined between roughly $90,000 and $92,400, exhibiting modest volatility. In the most recent 24-hour period, the price saw a 1.7% rise to around $92,200, with investor CW noting that short-term holders are nearing profitability. This creates a delicate balance where local momentum could swing quickly.

Analysts suggest that decisively reclaiming the $92,000–$94,000 resistance zone could trigger renewed buying interest and propel prices higher. However, as noted by analyst Ted Pillows, repeated resistance attempts—potentially the eighth or ninth in recent weeks—risk exhausting bullish momentum if they continue to fail. The market now sits at an inflection point, caught between early signs of long-term holder fatigue and technical setups that suggest the broader uptrend may not yet be broken. The resolution of this range will likely determine whether the SOPR’s warning signal foreshadows a deeper correction or merely a pause within a larger bullish structure.