Bitcoin IPO Cycle: Old Holders Sell, New Buyers Accumulate

According to macro analyst Jordi Visser, who shared his insights on Anthony Pompliano’s podcast and through his Substack publication, Bitcoin is experiencing a fundamental shift in ownership dynamics. Visser describes a scenario where ‘dormant bitcoin is moving again and new buyers are stepping in,’ drawing a direct comparison to traditional initial public offerings where early backers cash out and ownership spreads to a wider investor base. This redistribution process sees old holders slowly selling their positions while fresh investors pick up coins during market dips, creating what Visser characterizes as a healthy transfer of supply from long-idle wallets into the hands of buyers who enter during periods of weakness.

The current phase represents a maturation of the Bitcoin market, moving away from the concentration among early believers toward broader distribution across market participants. Analysts citing these developments argue the market is ‘redistributing holdings rather than unraveling,’ suggesting this represents structural evolution rather than fundamental deterioration. The process mirrors traditional market cycles where early investors gradually exit positions while new capital enters, creating a more diversified ownership base that could lead to more stable long-term price discovery.

Recent price action has been characterized by frustratingly flat trading, with Bitcoin oscillating between approximately $109,000 and $110,500 over the past week. This narrow trading range has left many traders impatient, particularly as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has registered ‘fear’ readings since Wednesday and averaged fear throughout the prior week. Despite these negative sentiment indicators, market behavior reveals a more complex story beneath the surface.

Visser notes that ‘every pullback has been met by buyers,’ indicating that accumulation is taking place even as sentiment readings remain poor. This divergence between market sentiment and actual buying behavior suggests sophisticated investors are using periods of weakness to build positions, viewing temporary price dips as accumulation opportunities rather than reasons for concern. The consistent buying pressure during declines points to underlying strength that isn’t immediately apparent from price charts or sentiment indicators alone.

Multiple industry signals provide evidence that the current market phase represents healthy redistribution rather than impending collapse. Visser points to several key indicators supporting this interpretation, including continued ETF approvals that bring institutional capital into the ecosystem, record-breaking Bitcoin network hashrate indicating robust network security, and growing stablecoin activity suggesting increased on-chain utility and transaction volume.

The broader macroeconomic context has also been active, with developments in US-China relations, Federal Reserve policy decisions, Mag7 earnings reports, and developments in stablecoin regulation creating multiple catalysts for market movement. These fundamental factors combine to create a supportive backdrop for the redistribution thesis, suggesting that while price action may appear stagnant, the underlying ecosystem continues to strengthen and mature through institutional adoption and technological development.

Based on Visser’s analysis, the current redistribution phase could continue for some time, with estimates suggesting it may stretch toward the six-month mark. He notes that while traditional IPO-like cycles in conventional markets can last between six to eighteen months, Bitcoin typically moves through such phases more rapidly due to its 24/7 trading nature and different market structure. However, the core dynamics of early holders gradually exiting while new participants enter remain consistent across both traditional and cryptocurrency markets.

One significant potential outcome of this redistribution process is lower future volatility. As ownership becomes ‘scattered across more participants instead of concentrated among early believers,’ the market may develop greater stability and resilience to large price swings. This dispersion of ownership could create a more balanced supply-demand dynamic, reducing the impact of large individual holders on price discovery and creating conditions for more sustainable long-term growth.

Importantly, Visser emphasizes that the transition may not be marked by a single dramatic event or clear signal. Reports indicate ‘the market could simply stop grinding and begin a clearer move as distribution completes,’ frustrating traders who seek obvious catalysts but familiar to those who have observed post-IPO stocks settling after lock-up expirations. This measured interpretation represents a cautious rather than hyped perspective, focusing on steady on-chain activity and institutional interest as the foundation for market evolution rather than promising rapid price appreciation.