Introduction
Bitcoin surged to $93,000 in Asian trading hours on Monday, propelled by heightened geopolitical risk following a United States military strike on Venezuela over the weekend. This move has ignited analyst speculation about a potential return to six-figure prices, with technical indicators suggesting a shift in momentum as the cryptocurrency breaks key resistance levels for the first time in months.
Key Points
- Analysts compare current Venezuela tensions to 2022 Ukraine invasion, which drove BTC up 22%
- BTC broke above 50-day moving average first time since October, signaling potential trend shift
- Seasonal tax-related trading patterns may contribute to January buying pressure
Geopolitical Catalyst Sparks Bullish Comparisons
The immediate catalyst for Bitcoin’s jump to $93,000 was a weekend strike by the United States on Venezuela, an event that market observers are comparing to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Michael Nadeau of The DeFi Report noted that following that 2022 geopolitical crisis, BTC climbed 22% in the subsequent weeks. “In the current environment, I’ve been anticipating a move for BTC back up to the 50-week moving average around $101,700,” Nadeau stated. “Now we have a catalyst. The key question is whether that level can hold if it is, in fact, revisited.”
This analysis frames the Venezuela tensions as a potential accelerant for a technical recovery. However, the provided context also highlights a critical caveat: 2022 was a bear market year that ultimately saw Bitcoin decline 77% from its all-time high. This historical parallel introduces a note of caution, suggesting that while geopolitical events can drive sharp rallies, they may occur within a broader downtrend.
Technical Momentum Builds as Sell Pressure Eases
Beyond the geopolitical headlines, on-chain and technical analysts point to strengthening momentum beneath the price action. Bitcoin entrepreneur Joe Consorti emphasized that BTC has broken back above its 50-day moving average for the first time since October, testing price levels not seen since early December. “Sell pressure may be nearing exhaustion,” Consorti observed, pinpointing the need to “reclaim and hold the 50-week MA at $101k” as the next critical hurdle.
This technical breakout is seen as a significant shift. Analyst ‘Sykodelic’ noted underlying strength, citing a “double buy signal on the relative strength” indicator from two days prior. At the time of the original report, Bitcoin was challenging the upper band of a six-week sideways trading channel, with immediate resistance seen just above $94,000. A clear break above this level is viewed as necessary to confirm a sustained breakout from the recent consolidation pattern.
Seasonal Patterns and the $100,000 Target
Adding another layer to the bullish thesis are anticipated seasonal trading flows. Trader Aaron Dishner suggested that crypto markets would experience a bounce in early January 2026, as many traders likely closed positions before the end of 2025 for tax purposes and would be buying back aggressively at the start of the new year. “But my target for BTC is still $100k before the next leg down,” Dishner stated, drawing parallels to similar bear market rallies at the start of 2022, 2018, and 2015.
This confluence of factors—geopolitical catalyst, technical breakout, and seasonal buying—has coalesced around the key $100,000 to $101,700 price zone. The 50-week moving average, specifically at $101,700 according to Nadeau and $101,000 per Consorti, represents a major technical and psychological barrier. The collective analysis from Michael Nadeau, Aaron Dishner, and Joe Consorti suggests the market is now testing whether this rally has the strength to challenge that defining level or if it will falter, reaffirming the broader bear market structure suggested by the 2022 comparison.
📎 Related coverage from: cryptopotato.com
