Bitcoin Hits 15-Year Trendline: Analysts Debate $70K Bottom

The core of the bullish argument comes from analyst Coinvo, who declared that Bitcoin has just touched a significant 15-year trendline on its Relative Strength Index (RSI) chart when measured against gold. According to his analysis, this same trendline was hit in 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2022. On each of those four prior occasions, the trendline held, creating a major buying opportunity where Bitcoin subsequently outperformed gold. Coinvo characterized the current moment as potentially the “biggest opportunity” for market participants.

Coinvo’s optimism extends beyond this single metric. He further noted that Bitcoin’s price action is mirroring the pattern from 2023, where it hit the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and used it as support to mark a bear-market bottom before rallying. He argues that the same dynamic is playing out now, suggesting the market is too focused on short-term “bearish noise” and that the underlying technical structure points to higher prices ahead. This perspective frames the current yearly low and 19% year-to-date decline as a potential cyclical bottom rather than the start of a prolonged downturn.

In stark contrast, other veteran analysts are sounding alarms. Benjamin Cowen pointed out that Bitcoin has crashed below its April 2025 low, a concerning breach. He draws parallels to previous cycles, noting that when Bitcoin fell below the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), it typically crashed straight to the 200-week SMA before any meaningful relief bounce occurred. This historical precedent suggests significant downside risk remains before a durable bottom is established.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt provided a more specific and ominous target. Analyzing the nature of the decline, which featured eight consecutive days of lower lows and lower highs, Brandt identified this as a pattern of “campaign selling”—likely orchestrated, large-scale institutional selling—rather than panic-driven retail liquidation. Based on this observation, he suggested the Bitcoin price could still drop to as low as $63,000. Brandt cautioned that such patterns are difficult to time and their endpoint is challenging to predict.

The most extreme bearish scenario was outlined by analyst PlanB, who framed potential outcomes based on historical drawdowns. He stated that an 80% decline from the current all-time high could see Bitcoin plummet to $25,000. A less severe but still painful drop to the 200-week moving average and the current realized price could mean a crash into the $50,000 to $60,000 range. PlanB did allow that a scenario where the price finds support at the previous cycle’s all-time high—around $70,000—could mean the bottom is already in, but his analysis primarily highlights the potential for much deeper losses.

The clash of these analyses occurs against a backdrop of heightened volatility and uncertainty. At the time of the report, Bitcoin was trading around $70,700, reflecting a drop of over 7% in just 24 hours. This price sits at the nexus of the competing forecasts: it is simultaneously the level of Coinvo’s historic trendline support and the threshold from which analysts like Brandt and Cowen project further declines.

The fundamental disagreement lies in the interpretation of market structure. The bullish view, championed by Coinvo, sees established, long-term technical support holding firm, setting the stage for a repeat of past cyclical recoveries. The bearish perspectives, from Benjamin Cowen, Peter Brandt, and PlanB, focus on breakdowns of key moving averages, patterns of sustained selling pressure, and the specter of historical maximum drawdowns. For investors, the current moment represents a critical juncture where the market’s next major directional move will validate one of these sharply divergent technical narratives.