Bitcoin Hash Rate Drop Signals 2026 Rally Setup, Says VanEck

Bitcoin (BTC) concluded 2025 with a difficult fourth quarter, its weakest since 2018, as selling pressure intensified in December. According to VanEck’s Bitcoin ChainCheck report, the price fell approximately 9% over the past month to hover around $87,000, after briefly trading near $81,000 in late November. This price struggle coincided with a surge in volatility above 45%, the highest level since April, and a sharp cooling in speculative appetite. The report noted that perpetual futures funding slipped to roughly 5% annualized, well below the yearly average, reflecting significantly reduced leverage across derivatives markets.

Against this backdrop, VanEck flagged mounting stress on Bitcoin miners as a key development. The network’s hashing power, measured on a 30-day moving average, recorded its steepest pullback since April 2024, dropping by roughly 4%. Profitability has been squeezed by the lower BTC price and rising competition, with breakeven electricity costs for older-generation miners like the S19 XP dropping to about $0.08 per kWh from $0.12 a year earlier. A significant contributor to the hash rate decline was activity in China’s Xinjiang region, where authorities redirected energy resources. VanEck estimates that shutdowns there may have removed close to 10% of global hash power, as capacity was shifted toward powering artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.

While miner stress and price weakness dominated headlines, capital flows revealed a split market with a notable divergence in investor behavior. On one hand, holdings in Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) fell by 120 basis points month-over-month. On the other, corporate digital asset treasuries engaged in significant accumulation, adding approximately 42,000 BTC in December—their largest monthly purchase since July. VanEck’s report indicated that MicroStrategy accounted for most of these purchases, leveraging its ability to issue equity, while other corporate buyers paused.

This split is mirrored in on-chain data, which VanEck describes as a ‘diamond hands divergence.’ The analysis shows that medium-term holders—specifically BTC that last moved one to five years ago—have been trimming their exposure. In contrast, the oldest cohorts of Bitcoin, held for longer periods, have remained largely steady. This pattern suggests that while short-cycle participants are exiting, the conviction of long-term holders remains unshaken, providing a foundation of stability beneath the market’s surface volatility.

VanEck’s core thesis hinges on historical data that frames the current hash rate decline as a contrarian bullish signal rather than a portent of prolonged weakness. The firm’s analysis shows that when the 90-day hash rate growth turns negative, Bitcoin’s 180-day forward returns have been positive 77% of the time, with average gains of around 72%. ‘Buying BTC when 90-day hash rate growth is negative, rather than at any time, has historically improved 180-day forward returns by +2,400 basis points,’ the report stated. This historical correlation suggests that periods of miner capitulation and network stress have often laid the groundwork for subsequent rallies.

Despite the weak price action—Bitcoin is down about 22% over the past three months—some market observers, including analyst Sykodelic, argue the selloff represents a structural cooling phase rather than a break in Bitcoin’s longer-term trend. VanEck’s takeaway offers a note of cautious optimism. The report concludes that while weak on-chain activity and miner pressure continue to weigh on short-term sentiment, improving liquidity conditions and significantly reduced leverage in derivatives suggest the groundwork for a healthier market cycle is being built. The firm increasingly frames 2026 as the horizon where the stress of today’s market could ultimately pay off for patient investors.