Bitcoin Has 50% Chance to Hit $140K This Month: Analyst

Economist Timothy Peterson has quantified Bitcoin’s near-term prospects with mathematical precision, posting on X that the cryptocurrency has a 50% chance of topping $140,000 before October concludes. His projection stems from simulation work that uses a decade of Bitcoin price movements to map likely outcomes, running hundreds of simulations based on daily prices dating back to 2015. At the time of his analysis, Bitcoin was trading at $121,200, meaning the cryptocurrency would need to rise approximately 11% to reach the $140,000 threshold.

Peterson’s model provides a comprehensive probability distribution, indicating not just the upside potential but also significant downside risk. Alongside the 50% chance of finishing above $140,000, his simulation shows a 43% probability that Bitcoin will end the month below $136,000. This balanced assessment comes as Bitcoin set a fresh all-time high of $126,200 earlier in the week before cooling off, having begun October at roughly $116,500.

The timing of Peterson’s analysis aligns with Bitcoin’s historically strong seasonal performance. According to historical data cited in his research, October has been the second-best month for Bitcoin since 2013, with typical gains averaging 20%. Even more significantly, November stands as the strongest month historically, averaging 46% gains since 2013. These seasonal patterns provide context for Peterson’s projection that half of Bitcoin’s October gains may have already occurred, with potential for further upside.

Peterson emphasized that his forecasting approach is driven entirely by data rather than human emotion, with each projection following price changes that mirror Bitcoin’s past volatility and rhythm. This methodology aims to remove bias from short-term market sentiment, focusing instead on historical patterns and probabilistic outcomes. However, Peterson acknowledges the limitations of historical simulations, noting that Bitcoin has sometimes moved in ways that didn’t match past patterns due to market reactions, policy moves, and other external forces.

Beyond Peterson’s data-driven analysis, broader market sentiment remains decidedly bullish. Other analysts on social platforms have urged continued optimism following Bitcoin’s recent all-time high, with one noting that the market was retesting prior highs and could move higher, while another wrote that pressure was building for further gains. These qualitative assessments complement Peterson’s quantitative model, providing traders and funds with multiple perspectives to inform their decisions.

Prominent investor Anthony Pompliano reinforced the bullish case during an appearance on CNBC, arguing that Bitcoin’s rally can continue if governments and central banks keep printing money. His view, which links monetary policy directly to Bitcoin demand, is widely shared among supporters who see the cryptocurrency as a hedge against currency devaluation. Pompliano’s commentary, captured in social media posts that circulated alongside Peterson’s analysis, adds macroeconomic justification to the technical and seasonal factors supporting Bitcoin’s potential upward movement.

The convergence of data-driven probability models, historical seasonal patterns, and broader market optimism creates a compelling narrative for Bitcoin’s near-term prospects. While Peterson’s model provides specific probability thresholds and acknowledges the very real possibility of prices finishing below $136,000, the combination of technical, seasonal, and macroeconomic factors suggests continued volatility with significant upside potential as Bitcoin establishes itself as what some analysts call ‘the new hurdle rate’ for investment performance.