Bitcoin Gains in US Trading Session Signal Shift in December

According to data analyzed by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn, Bitcoin’s cumulative returns during the US trading window have flipped decisively in December. The chart shared by Maartunn, which segments trading activity based on when investors in major markets are typically active, reveals a stark contrast. In the latter weeks of November, cumulative returns for the American session were negative, with European and Asia-Pacific sessions also struggling to post gains, hovering near neutral levels.

This trend underwent a pronounced shift starting near the end of November. Throughout December so far, the US session has dramatically “pulled away from the rest,” as Maartunn noted. Cumulative returns for American trading hours have surged to a positive 8%. In stark contrast, the same metric for Europe and Asia-Pacific sits at approximately -4% or lower. This divergence suggests a clear regional split in investor behavior: American participants are likely engaging in accumulation, while their counterparts in other major regions are either distributing their holdings or remaining inactive.

This shift in session performance occurs in the wake of significant market stress. As highlighted by quant Frank in a separate analysis, November’s price decline triggered a historic move in a critical on-chain indicator: the Realized Price for Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs). This metric calculates the average cost basis—or acquisition price—for all investors who purchased their Bitcoin within the last 155 days.

The chart tracking this indicator shows it experienced a “notable decline” alongside Bitcoin’s price crash in November. This movement signifies that recent buyers, who entered the market at higher price levels, engaged in widespread panic capitulation. By selling at a loss, they effectively repriced their coins to the lower, post-plunge valuation levels. The capitulation was so intense that the STH Realized Price registered its largest negative 7-day change since the FTX crash in November 2022, marking the most severe stress event for recent investors in over two years.

The current landscape for Bitcoin is one of contrasting signals. The emerging pattern of strong US session returns points to renewed buying interest from a key demographic, potentially providing a foundation for price support. However, the profound reset in the short-term holder cost basis serves as a stark reminder of the recent volatility and the fragile sentiment among more recent market entrants.

This volatility remains present. In the past day, Bitcoin has witnessed bearish price action, with its value declining by approximately 3.5% to trade around $85,800 at the time of reporting. This pullback underscores that despite the positive shift in US session accumulation, broader market conditions remain choppy. The interplay between regional accumulation trends, evidenced by the session data, and the ongoing process of market stabilization following the STH capitulation, will be critical to watch in the coming weeks.