Bitcoin Futures Turn Bullish After 3-Month Neutral Phase

According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., the Bitcoin Positioning Index has broken into a steady bullish zone for the first time in three months. The index, which synthesizes data on open interest dynamics, funding rates, and long/short ratios across major exchanges, rose to 3.5. This marks its first breakout above the critical 3.0 level since October 2025, when a similar setup preceded a rally that pushed Bitcoin to $125,000. Adler emphasizes that the move above 3 on the 30-day simple moving average (SMA-30d) indicates a ‘local regime shift’ after an extended period in the neutral range of 0 ± 2.

The daily data underscores the aggressive nature of the current positioning. The daily index value reached 24, firmly in the bullish zone, supported by concrete market mechanics. These include a 1.89% rise in open interest—pushing the total to $12.18 billion—a positive taker delta, and a funding rate of 0.0045. This confluence of factors points to systematic accumulation of long positions rather than a fleeting, one-day spike. For Adler, confirmation of a sustained bullish trend hinges on the SMA-30d remaining above the 2 level for at least one week.

Complementing the futures data, the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index provides further context on market psychology. The index recently peaked at an overheated 93% before pulling back to 70%. Despite this 23-percentage-point decline, sentiment remains robustly above the neutral 50% threshold and its 30-day average of 62.9%. Adler interprets this pullback not as a reversal of bullish momentum, but as a healthy release of excessive optimism, allowing the market to consolidate gains.

This current sentiment profile stands in stark contrast to the extreme fear witnessed during December’s correction to $85,000, when the index plunged to 10-15%. Adler characterized that event as a ‘structural breakdown’ rather than a temporary adjustment. The resilience of current sentiment suggests a stronger underlying bid. However, Adler notes a key watchpoint: if market sentiment turns negative and Bitcoin’s price falls below the $92,000 support level, it would signal that the bullish momentum in the derivatives market is beginning to fade.

The bullish shift in Bitcoin derivatives is occurring within a broader macro context that appears supportive. Analysis from QCP Capital points to a continued risk-on environment as a tailwind for digital assets. The firm cites the current state of the United States economy, characterized by stable inflation and strong performance in equity and precious metal markets, as factors bolstering overall risk appetite. This environment, they argue, is conducive to capital flowing into assets like Bitcoin.

While acknowledging potential risks—including geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran, and a pending US Supreme Court decision on tariffs—QCP Capital suggests these developments are largely priced into current market valuations. The firm’s view implies that any escalation from these events may not derail the bullish trend but could instead present ‘buy-the-dip’ opportunities for BTC. This perspective frames near-term volatility as a potential entry point within a larger upward trajectory, contingent on the broader risk-on sentiment persisting.