Bitcoin Faces Fifth Red Month as Crypto Market Loses Half Its Value

According to Cryptorank data, Bitcoin is facing its fifth straight red month, having closed October, November, December, and January in negative territory before its current 16% decline in May. This prolonged losing streak mirrors the pattern observed in 2018, which followed the record highs of the 2017 bull market and ushered in an extended bear phase. The current downturn has had a devastating ripple effect across the entire digital asset ecosystem. Since October, the total crypto market capitalization has been nearly halved, indicating a broad-based retreat from risk assets rather than an isolated correction in Bitcoin.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has framed this period, stating that October 2025 marked the top for both Bitcoin and the wider market, confirming they are now entrenched in a bear market. While acknowledging that bear markets are temporary, Cowen has provided a sobering timeline, suggesting October 2026 could be a potential point for a market low, though he remains open to the possibility of a bottom arriving sooner if the sell-off accelerates. This analysis sets a backdrop of extended uncertainty for investors.

The recent acceleration of the sell-off, which saw Bitcoin crash over 13% in a single day to briefly touch $60,000, is attributed to several key factors. A primary catalyst was the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot following last week’s FOMC meeting, where officials decided to hold interest rates steady, dampening hopes for imminent monetary easing. This macro headwind was compounded by political uncertainty, as markets reacted negatively to former President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair.

Concurrently, Bitcoin is grappling with significant and persistent selling pressure from its own institutional investment products. Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), once hailed as a gateway for massive capital inflows, have recorded three consecutive months of net outflows. Data from SoSoValue indicates these funds are on track for a fourth straight month of withdrawals, with net outflows this month alone reaching $690 million. This sustained exodus from regulated products underscores a profound shift in institutional sentiment and represents a major source of ongoing selling pressure.

Amid the gloom, veteran traders are mapping out potential paths to a market bottom. Peter Brandt, a seasoned analyst, has predicted that a Bitcoin drop to the $42,000 region is “on the cards,” though he believes it is unlikely to fall much further. He characterized a move to this level as a “hop, skip, and jump,” suggesting that while painful, it may represent a final capitulation before a reversal. Brandt further posits that the broader crypto market will likely find its bottom in tandem with Bitcoin’s.

In a telling observation, Brandt distinguished the nature of the current decline. He stated that Bitcoin’s price action bears “all the fingerprints of campaign selling, not retail liquidation,” implying coordinated institutional or large-scale strategic selling rather than panic-driven exits by small investors. He noted the inherent difficulty in timing the end of such a pattern, a comment made just before Bitcoin broke below the $63,000 level he had identified as a key target. At the time of writing, Bitcoin price is trading around $65,800, down over 6% in the last 24 hours, reflecting continued volatility and downward pressure as the market searches for stability.