Bitcoin Faces Critical Resistance at $90K Amid Bearish Signals

Bitcoin’s current price action represents its fifth encounter with a specific diagonal resistance line that has defined market tops since 2018. According to analysis from Bitcoinsensus, this trendline has acted as a critical barrier, with each touch followed by a dramatic correction. The historical precedents are stark: the first rejection in 2018 precipitated an 83% crash. Subsequent rejections led to pullbacks of 56%, 77%, and 34% in later years.

The current rejection from this level is already in motion. Bitcoin has declined over 34% from its recent highs above $126,000, reinforcing the trendline’s role as powerful resistance. This pattern suggests that, absent a decisive breakout, the market structure remains vulnerable to further downside, continuing a multi-year cycle of rejection and correction at this technical frontier.

Compounding the pressure from the long-term trendline, Bitcoin is now flirting with a significant bearish signal on its 3-day chart: a potential death cross. This technical pattern occurs when a short-term moving average crosses below a longer-term one, often heralding a period of intensified selling. The asset is already trading below both averages, setting the stage for the cross to confirm.

Trader Butcher underscored the severity of this setup, commenting, “If $BTC doesn’t pump hard from here, the 3D death cross will send this shit right to 50K with speed.” This sentiment highlights the urgency in the market, where a failure to reverse momentum could trigger accelerated declines. Analysts are closely watching specific price thresholds for directional clues. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe identified $87,700, $83,800, and $80,500 as crucial support zones where Bitcoin might find a bounce. He noted that a move above $88,000 is critical for sentiment, stating, “Break $88K and we’re back in the good music land.”

Amid the bearish structural warnings, some indicators offer a glimmer of hope for Bitcoin bulls. As reported by CryptoPotato, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching historically oversold levels. In the past five instances where the RSI dropped below 30, the asset eventually staged a strong rebound. However, this potential bullish divergence is currently overshadowed by other structure-based tools, such as the Bull-Bear Index, which continue to signal underlying market weakness.

The macro landscape adds another layer of uncertainty. Van de Poppe pointed to the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy decision, an event that market participants expect to cause volatility. However, he injected a note of caution, observing, “When everybody expects one thing, usually the opposite is the actual outcome,” suggesting the market reaction may defy consensus. Meanwhile, trader Daan Crypto provided context on market liquidity, noting that Bitcoin is trading near the same levels it held six months ago after liquidity was “taken on the way up and on the way down.” He identified $95,000 as the nearest significant liquidity area, a level that could act as a magnet for price movement.

With 24-hour trading volume at $50 billion and Bitcoin down 4% over the past week, the market stands at a clear inflection point. The repeated rejection of a multi-year resistance line, combined with a looming death cross, paints a concerning technical picture. While oversold conditions and key support levels offer potential for a relief rally, the burden of proof lies with the bulls to reclaim $88,000. Failure to do so risks validating the bearish signals and opening the path toward deeper corrections, echoing the severe downturns that have followed each prior brush with this historic trendline.