Bitcoin Faces Bearish Pattern as Analysts Warn of $100K Drop

Market expert Tony Severino has identified what he describes as the tightest Bollinger Band squeeze in Bitcoin’s entire history, indicating exceptionally low volatility that typically precedes significant price movements. According to Severino’s analysis, Bitcoin is currently trading within an unusually narrow range, with the upper Bollinger Band at approximately $122,000, the basis line at $111,600, and the lower band at $101,000. This compression in volatility is particularly noteworthy because it’s occurring at a critical technical level, potentially setting the stage for a substantial price breakout.

Severino’s concern centers on the formation of an Evening Star pattern right at the Bollinger Band basis line around $111,600. This technical pattern, which typically signals a reversal from bullish to bearish momentum, is forming during this historic volatility squeeze. The market expert cautions that this combination could lead to a decline toward the lower Bollinger Band basis, putting the $101,000 level in play. The timing of this pattern formation during such extreme volatility compression adds weight to the bearish scenario.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has pinpointed $116,300 as a crucial resistance level that Bitcoin must reclaim to avoid further downside. Martinez warns that failure to break above this level could trigger a drop toward $94,334 based on Pricing Band analysis. Even more immediate is the $107,200 support level, which Martinez identifies as critical for maintaining bullish structure. A breakdown below this support would put the psychological $100,000 barrier, and potentially even $93,000, firmly in play according to his technical assessment.

Bob Loukas, another prominent crypto analyst, confirms that bears currently control the market momentum. Loukas indicates that Bitcoin appears to be printing its Weekly Cycle Low, though he notes that BTC is holding up relatively well despite the downward pressure. The analyst establishes a clear threshold for trend reversal: a rally to $118,000 would confirm the start of a new cycle. Until that level is breached, Loukas maintains that bearish forces will continue to dominate price action, with risk of Bitcoin testing below $100,000 during this control period.

Adding to the technical concerns, analyst Titan of Crypto observed that Bitcoin has broken below the trendline at $110,000. While noting that confirmation is still needed and the lagging span must follow to validate this bearish move, the breakdown adds another layer of technical pressure on Bitcoin’s price structure. This breach compounds the worries raised by other analysts about key support levels being tested.

Despite the near-term bearish signals, analysts generally maintain optimistic long-term projections for Bitcoin. Bob Loukas, while acknowledging current bear control, expects Bitcoin to eventually rally to as high as $140,000 once the cycle transitions. This perspective suggests that any potential drop below $100,000 may represent a buying opportunity rather than a fundamental breakdown of Bitcoin’s bull market structure.

Titan of Crypto represents the view that Bitcoin has not reached its cycle top, characterizing the current market environment as a period of fear that historically hasn’t marked market peaks. This analysis provides context for the current technical warnings, suggesting they may represent a healthy correction within a broader upward trend rather than the beginning of a sustained bear market. The analyst’s observation that fear periods typically don’t signal cycle tops offers a counterbalance to the immediate technical concerns.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $109,600, showing modest gains in the last 24 hours according to CoinMarketCap data. This slight recovery attempt occurs against the backdrop of these conflicting technical signals—bearish patterns and breakdowns versus long-term bullish expectations. The market appears to be at an inflection point where the resolution of these technical patterns will likely determine Bitcoin’s direction for the coming weeks.