Bitcoin Faces $95K Bottom Risk Amid On-Chain Data Warning

Bitcoin’s price action remains concerning despite appearing to stabilize around the $102,000 level over the weekend. According to data from CoinGecko, the premier cryptocurrency has been hovering around $102,440, reflecting a nearly 1% decline in the past 24 hours. While this choppy trading represents some improvement from the severe downturn witnessed in recent days, it fails to bring meaningful calm to the world’s largest cryptocurrency market.

The current price level masks underlying vulnerabilities that could trigger further correction. The latest on-chain data suggests Bitcoin remains at risk of additional downward pressure in the coming days, with technical indicators pointing toward potential support levels significantly below current trading ranges. This persistent weakness comes despite Bitcoin’s strong performance throughout much of 2025, highlighting the volatile nature of cryptocurrency markets even during bull cycles.

On-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci has identified a concerning pattern in Bitcoin’s Realized Price of Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) age bands that suggests further downside may be imminent. In a November 8 post on social media platform X, Kesmeci predicted the local bottom for Bitcoin could form around $95,000-$96,000 before any meaningful recovery occurs. The UTXO age bands metric tracks the average price at which Bitcoin holders purchased their coins compared to how long they’ve held the assets.

The analysis focuses specifically on the 1-week to 1-month cohort (green line) and the 1-month to 3-month cohort (purple line), which provide crucial insight into short-term holders’ behavior and overall market sentiment. According to Kesmeci’s research, the green line has crossed below the purple line three times in 2025, with each occurrence preceding significant short-term corrections. These crosses occurred before the February 24 decline from $99,000 to $76,000, the September 8 drop from $117,000 to $109,000, and most recently on November 1, when Bitcoin fell from $110,000 to $99,000.

The historical data reveals a consistent pattern: when the 1-week to 1-month band crosses below the 1-month to 3-month band, Bitcoin experiences an average price decline of approximately 13.3%, followed by a 45-day consolidation period. This established pattern provides the foundation for Kesmeci’s prediction that Bitcoin could find its bottom around $95,000 after the most recent crossing on November 1.

The current market situation presents particular challenges for long-term Bitcoin investors. As Kesmeci noted, ‘long-term investors are in the red, and this is an undesirable situation for a bull cycle.’ This condition creates additional selling pressure and reduces the stability typically provided by long-term holders during market downturns. The crossing of the UTXO age bands indicates that short-term holders are becoming increasingly influential in price movements, often leading to heightened volatility.

Despite the negative short-term outlook, historical precedent offers some hope for recovery. The same UTXO age band analysis that predicts a decline to $95,000 also suggests that this level could serve as a springboard for future gains. Kesmeci concluded that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin may ‘catch its breath’ in the $95,000-$96,000 region and ‘prepare the ground for a new rise.’ The 45-day consolidation period observed in previous instances provides time for the market to absorb selling pressure and establish a solid foundation for the next upward move.

For investors and traders, the current environment requires careful risk management and attention to on-chain metrics. The UTXO age bands provide valuable insight into market structure and potential turning points, but as with all technical analysis, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin can establish support around $95,000 or whether broader market conditions will push prices even lower.