Bitcoin Faces 10% Drop Risk as Key Support Level Breaks

Bitcoin has fallen below the Short-Term Holder Realized Price of approximately $111,500 for the fourth time during the current bull run that began in November 2022, according to on-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci. This metric represents the average price at which Bitcoin short-term investors—those holding for less than 115 days—purchased their coins. As the average cost basis for this significant investor cohort, the STH Realized Price typically functions as a dynamic support and resistance level, making its breach a notable development for market sentiment.

The current breakdown comes after what appeared to be a strong start to September, with Bitcoin’s price now essentially back where it began the month. This technical development occurs just as investors were hoping for seasonal strength during the historically bullish period known as ‘Uptober,’ creating tension between technical indicators and seasonal expectations. The breach suggests that underlying market dynamics may override historical seasonal patterns in the coming weeks.

According to Kesmeci’s analysis, Bitcoin has previously fallen below the STH Realized Price three times during the current bull cycle, with each instance triggering a significant consolidation phase. The first occurrence between August and October 2023 resulted in an over 8% decline in Bitcoin’s value. The second instance, spanning June to October 2024, saw the flagship cryptocurrency’s price drop by more than 13%. Most recently, between February and April 2025, the market leader dipped almost 8% following a breach of this critical level.

These historical patterns reveal a consistent trend: when Bitcoin breaks below the STH Realized Price, it typically enters a period of price consolidation that averages 77 days in duration. More concerning for current investors is that each of these previous consolidation phases resulted in an average loss of nearly 10% in BTC’s value. This historical precedent suggests that short-term holders who purchased near recent highs may face mounting pressure if they need to liquidate positions.

Kesmeci concludes that Bitcoin price could enter a consolidation or correction phase if it closes both the week and potentially the month beneath the STH Realized Price around $111,500. If history repeats itself, investors could witness the market losing as much as 10% over the next two to three months. This projection would place Bitcoin’s price around $98,600, representing a significant test of investor confidence and market structure.

The current Bitcoin price of approximately $109,538 reflects minimal movement over the past 24 hours, suggesting a market in equilibrium as it digests this technical development. The absence of strong directional movement indicates uncertainty among traders who are weighing the bearish technical signals against potential seasonal strength. This stalemate may resolve itself depending on whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $111,500 level or confirms the breakdown with sustained trading below it.

For cryptocurrency investors, the STH Realized Price serves as a crucial psychological and technical threshold. When prices trade above this level, short-term holders generally remain in profit, reducing selling pressure. However, when prices dip below this average cost basis, as they have currently, it increases the likelihood of panic selling or stop-loss triggering among recent buyers, potentially accelerating downward momentum. This dynamic makes the coming weekly and monthly closes particularly significant for determining Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.