Bitcoin Eyes $96K-$99K Recovery as Bearish Momentum Fades

The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Structure Index, tracked by on-chain researcher Axel Adler Jr., has shown significant improvement from a deeply negative -43% to approximately -20% after remaining in negative territory since November 11. This marked improvement indicates a clear reduction in bearish momentum, suggesting that the sustained selling pressure that characterized the past month may be losing steam. However, the Bitcoin Futures Flow Index remains stuck in bearish territory near 41, still below the 45-55 band that Adler associates with a more neutral or bullish backdrop.

According to Adler’s analysis, until the Futures Flow Index clears the 45 level, sustained upward momentum remains unlikely. The current fair-value line sits near $99,000, creating a visible $11,000 gap to the spot price that frames a clear recovery target between $96,000 and $99,000 should market sentiment continue to improve. This technical setup provides traders with measurable parameters for assessing Bitcoin’s potential recovery trajectory.

Additional evidence of easing pressure comes from market watcher Daan Crypto Trades, who noted that the Coinbase premium, which had been deeply negative for weeks, moved back toward neutral over the weekend. This shift followed heavy selling that reached a local bottom last Friday, suggesting that the most intense selling pressure may have subsided. Despite these positive signals, short-term market structure remains fragile, requiring careful monitoring of key technical levels.

Analyst Titan of Crypto has identified $88,700 as the first critical level that bulls need to reclaim to establish stronger upward momentum. Meanwhile, analyst Ed_NL highlighted a significant “red box” resistance zone near $93,500 that represents a crucial decision point for Bitcoin’s next major move. This zone could either cap a three-leg bounce before new lows or form the foundation for a fifth wave higher if buyers regain control of the market.

The recent downturn has been characterized by what analysts describe as “institutional redistribution,” where the largest whale cohorts—specifically those holding between 1,000 and 10,000+ BTC—have been consistent net sellers. This profit-taking activity has created persistent headwinds for any significant rally attempts, contributing to Bitcoin’s 23% decline over the past month and its current position approximately 30% below October’s all-time high of over $126,000.

Despite this selling pressure from the largest holders, data from Santiment reveals underlying accumulation activity. The number of wallets holding 100 BTC or more has increased by 0.47% since November 11, adding 91 new wallets to this tier. This accumulation is occurring primarily in the mid-sized whale category of 10 to 1,000 BTC holders, suggesting that while the largest whales are taking profits, smaller institutional and wealthy individual investors are using the price dip as an accumulation opportunity.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin showed modest gains of 1% over the last 24 hours, trading around $87,000. However, the cryptocurrency remains in negative territory across all other timeframes, with nearly 5% losses over seven days and 18% declines across two weeks. These figures underscore the challenging market conditions that have persisted throughout November.

The convergence of improving on-chain metrics, shifting whale behavior patterns, and key technical levels suggests that Bitcoin may be approaching a significant turning point. While the path to recovery remains contingent on clearing critical resistance levels and seeing sustained improvement in derivatives metrics, the current setup provides a framework for understanding how Bitcoin might navigate toward the identified $96,000-$99,000 recovery target as bearish momentum continues to fade.