Introduction
Bitcoin is testing a critical support level at $115,440 that could determine its near-term trajectory. Holding this level may propel BTC toward $137,300, while a breakdown could see prices fall toward $93,600. Analysts point to strong underlying fundamentals suggesting potential for new all-time highs in the coming weeks.
Key Points
- $115,440 support level is critical for Bitcoin's next major move – holding could target $137,300 while breaking could drop to $93,600
- Two bullish signals identified: rising liquidity and strong network growth, historically preceding sharp price advances of 35-40% within weeks
- September seasonal drag may be ending with Bitcoin up 3% last week and showing signs of forming a stable base for Q4 breakout potential
The $115,440 Pivot Point: Bitcoin's Make-or-Break Level
Bitcoin’s recent trading above $117,240 has brought into sharp focus the $115,440 support level that crypto analyst Ali Martinez identifies as the most critical threshold for the cryptocurrency’s next major move. According to Martinez’s Pricing Bands analysis, this level now serves as the decisive pivot point that will likely determine whether Bitcoin extends its current rally or slips into a sharper correction. The market’s reaction around this price point is being closely watched by traders and analysts alike.
The potential outcomes are starkly different depending on Bitcoin’s ability to maintain this support. If BTC manages to hold above $115,440, momentum could build toward the next significant upside target at $137,300, which would represent a substantial rally from current levels and further boost bullish conviction among investors. Conversely, a breakdown below this critical zone could expose the market to deeper downside pressure, potentially bringing $93,600 into focus as the next key support level.
Bullish Signals and Historical Precedents
Despite the short-term volatility, analysis firm Swissblock suggests that recent price movements represent normal risk repricing rather than a market breakdown. The firm found that testing the lower end of Bitcoin’s current range remains within normal volatility expectations and could potentially be the final downside move before the next major leg higher. This perspective is supported by the emergence of two particularly bullish signals: rising liquidity and strong network growth.
Historical data provides compelling evidence for this optimistic outlook. In February 2024, Bitcoin surged 35% in just two weeks following similar fundamental build-ups, while in November 2024, the cryptocurrency rallied 40% over three weeks under comparable conditions. Swissblock notes that Bitcoin is currently experiencing the strongest and longest build-up of the entire cycle, effectively spring-loading the market for a potential breakout. The firm anticipates new all-time highs for Bitcoin within one to three weeks, with this momentum potentially spilling over into Ethereum and altcoins as sidelined cash re-enters the market at lower levels.
Seasonal Trends and On-Chain Strength
September has historically presented challenges for Bitcoin, but current conditions suggest this seasonal drag may be nearing its end. The cryptocurrency climbed 3% last week, showing signs of forming a stable base according to the Bitfinex Alpha report. This positive momentum is visible across the broader crypto market, as evidenced by the surge in total crypto capitalization.
On-chain metrics further reinforce the bullish thesis. Strong investor participation is indicated by both on-chain buy pressure and Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) metrics, suggesting that market participants are positioning themselves for potential Q4 breakthroughs. These technical indicators, combined with the fundamental strength shown through network growth and liquidity increases, create a compelling case for Bitcoin’s potential to break out of its current range and establish new price discovery levels in the coming weeks.
📎 Related coverage from: cryptopotato.com