Bitcoin Eyes $107K After Bollinger Band Breakout, Analyst Says

According to John Bollinger, the creator of the widely-used Bollinger Bands indicator, the BTCUSD chart is flashing a textbook sequence. The pattern began with Bitcoin carving out a “well-formed base” throughout the late-year period, following the sharp selloff in the fourth quarter. As detailed in his chart analysis, this base saw price repeatedly find support in the low-to-mid $80,000s, establishing a solid platform. This basing phase is crucial, as it set the stage for the next step: a pronounced compression in volatility.

The squeeze is visually identified in the Bollinger BandWidth indicator, which sank to a marked low before beginning to turn upward. This compression typically precedes a significant price move. The breakout was confirmed when the %B indicator—which measures where price sits relative to the bands—drove decisively above the 1.0 line. This technical signal indicates that price has pushed beyond the upper Bollinger Band, transitioning the market from a state of coiled tension to what Bollinger terms “active expansion.” At the time of his analysis, BTC was trading at $94,484, with the bands beginning to expand and the mid-band rising supportively beneath the price.

With the breakout confirmed, Bollinger’s chart lays out two explicit upside targets. The first horizontal red line is drawn at the psychologically significant $100,000 level. The second target is placed near $107,000, which would represent a substantial extension of the current move. The trajectory, however, is not guaranteed. Bollinger’s risk control statement is unequivocal: “If we fail here it is back into the trenches.”

In chart terms, “failure” means Bitcoin losing its footing above the breakout zone and slipping back into the prior base region. The analysis pinpoints the $93,500 area as the cap of that former range, making it the most critical level for the bullish thesis. A sustained move below this threshold would invalidate the breakout signal and likely trigger a retest of the base’s support in the $80,000s. Therefore, while the setup points higher, the trade is binary, hinging entirely on Bitcoin’s ability to hold this newly conquered ground.

Bollinger also addressed the state of the broader crypto market, offering comparative technical reads on Ethereum (ETH) and XRP. When asked about ETHUSD, he noted it exhibits “the same pattern, a bit delayed, following not leading.” This positions Ethereum as a lagging participant in the current move, one that is mirroring Bitcoin’s constructive setup but is not driving the market’s direction.

For XRP, the assessment was more cautious. Despite acknowledging a “strong lift” in price, Bollinger stated that “the pattern is weaker.” This technical judgment establishes a clear hierarchy of relative strength within the major cryptocurrencies he reviewed. In his view, for now, the order is BTC leading ETH, with XRP trailing. This suggests that while positive momentum may be spreading, Bitcoin remains the primary technical benchmark and the asset with the most clearly defined bullish structure according to this analysis.