Bitcoin ETFs See $520M Inflow, Price May Hit $170K

The $520 million inflow into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs represents one of the most significant single-day capital movements in recent weeks, completely reversing the previous day’s anemic $1.15 million inflow and overcoming a week that witnessed $1.22 billion in withdrawals. This dramatic swing is being closely monitored by market participants because historical patterns show that sustained ETF inflows have consistently preceded major Bitcoin price rallies. The timing of this capital influx is particularly noteworthy as Bitcoin currently trades around $104,000, with some analysts suggesting that continued buying pressure could trigger a substantial upward move.

Market watchers emphasize that ETF flows have become a critical indicator of institutional sentiment toward Bitcoin, with Tuesday’s $520 million injection representing the kind of momentum shift that has historically preceded significant price appreciation. The sharp contrast between Tuesday’s substantial inflow and the previous week’s $1.22 billion in withdrawals suggests that institutional investors may be repositioning themselves for what could be the next major leg up in Bitcoin’s price cycle.

According to analysis from CryptoCon, a technical model called ‘diminishing golden curves’ uses logarithmic regression to map Bitcoin’s price bands and track deviations from its long-term growth path. This model has accurately identified previous cycle tops, with Bitcoin reaching the +5 deviation level in November 2013, +4 in December 2017, and +3 in November 2021. The current projection places the next market peak near the +2 band, which translates to a price range between $160,000 and $170,000, with potential swings toward $186,000.

As highlighted by Bitcoin Teddy on social media, this technical analysis suggests Bitcoin could climb approximately 70% from current levels near $104,000 if the model’s projections hold. The diminishing golden curves approach provides a framework for understanding how each successive Bitcoin cycle has shown smaller deviations from its fundamental growth trajectory, potentially indicating maturing market dynamics while still projecting substantial upside from current price levels.

The timing of this projected peak aligns with Bitcoin’s halving cycle rhythm, which has consistently produced market tops approximately 12-18 months after previous halving events. With the last halving occurring in April 2024, the model expects a market peak in late 2025, creating a convergence of technical and cyclical factors that many analysts are watching closely as potential catalysts for the next major price movement.

Supporting the technical outlook, on-chain metrics provide additional evidence of strengthening market fundamentals. The stablecoin supply ratio has fallen to levels that have historically coincided with market lows, suggesting significant dry powder waiting on the sidelines that could fuel future price appreciation. This metric indicates that stablecoin holders may be positioned to convert their holdings into Bitcoin during favorable market conditions.

Data from Binance reveals a telling pattern: stablecoin reserves are rising while Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are declining. This combination is typically interpreted as accumulation by long-term holders, as investors move Bitcoin off exchanges into cold storage while maintaining liquidity in stablecoins for potential future purchases. CryptoQuant analyst Moreno notes that increasing liquidity coupled with low volatility creates an attractive risk-reward profile for potential buyers, potentially setting the stage for the next leg up in Bitcoin’s price cycle.

Despite the bullish indicators, analysts caution that market conditions could change rapidly, particularly with new economic data releases and the resolution of the US government shutdown. These macroeconomic events have historically introduced volatility and shifted capital flows in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets, potentially disrupting the current positive momentum.

While models like the diminishing golden curves provide valuable historical context, they inherently depend on past patterns repeating in ways that might not hold if major market shocks occur. The projection of a late 2025 peak based on halving cycle timing, while historically consistent, remains subject to changing market dynamics, regulatory developments, and global economic conditions that could alter Bitcoin’s typical post-halving performance pattern.