Bitcoin Enters ‘Boring’ Sideways Phase as Inflows Stall

According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, fresh capital is no longer flowing into Bitcoin in a meaningful way. Writing on X, he noted that money has instead rotated into equities and commodities, which he referred to as ‘stocks and shiny rocks.’ This shift, combined with structural changes in the market, makes timing inflows far less useful than in earlier cycles, challenging traditional analysis methods.

Ki Young Ju argued that the classic pattern where large holders sold into retail demand has weakened significantly. He pointed to long-term institutional ownership as a key factor changing supply behavior, specifically dismissing fears that major corporate holders would suddenly flood the market with coins. As evidence, he cited MicroStrategy’s substantial 673,000 BTC stash, stating the firm is unlikely to sell a meaningful portion. Consequently, he believes a deep drawdown similar to prior bear markets looks unlikely.

Instead of a violent drop from the all-time high, Ki expects what he described as ‘boring sideways’ price action for the next several months. He added a blunt warning to traders betting on a sudden collapse: ‘Shorting here hoping for a nuke? Good luck with that.’ This perspective directly counters both crash fears and expectations for a near-term bull run, positioning Bitcoin in a transitional phase rather than a decisive trend.

Recent on-chain analysis provides context for Ki Young Ju’s outlook. A report by analyst CryptoZeno indicates Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is sitting near the 0.3 level. This zone has historically acted as a holding range between recovery and renewed risk-taking, suggesting average holders are back in modest profit but nowhere near the excess euphoria seen late in past cycles.

Glassnode’s Week On-Chain report, released January 7, echoed this view, describing the flagship cryptocurrency entering 2026 with a ‘cleaner market structure’ after a major reset. The report noted that profit-taking has cooled, derivatives positioning has been cleared, and spot ETF flows in the U.S. have started to turn positive again, albeit unevenly. This data collectively paints a picture of a market in consolidation, lacking the fuel for a sharp directional move in either direction.

However, not all market participants share this neutral-to-cautious outlook. On social media platform X, user Inner Edition captured the frustration among some smaller investors, expressing they were ‘extremely disappointed’ and questioning whether a bull market would even arrive. In response, Ki Young Ju urged patience, comparing Bitcoin to an asset that improves with time rather than through quick speculation.

The market outlook for 2026 remains split among analysts and market watchers. On one side, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan represents a more optimistic contingent. He believes Bitcoin’s recovery can continue if regulatory uncertainty in Washington eases and equity markets avoid a steep drop, suggesting external macro factors are key catalysts.

Conversely, more cautious voices persist. The pseudonymous analyst Doctor Profit, for example, still sees risks of lower prices later in 2026, despite acknowledging limited downside in the short term. This divergence highlights the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s next major move, with analysts weighing structural changes against potential macroeconomic headwinds.

The overarching narrative, as framed by Ki Young Ju and supported by on-chain data from CryptoZeno and Glassnode, is one of transition. The market is characterized by stalled inflows, capital rotation, and a supply side stabilized by long-term holders like MicroStrategy. For traders and investors, this signals a departure from the volatile boom-and-bust cycles of the past and an entry into a phase defined by patience and structural maturation.