Bitcoin Drops Below $84K, Analysts Warn of Deeper Correction Ahead

The recent price action for Bitcoin (BTC) has been defined by rejection. As highlighted by crypto analyst Dami-Defi, the asset faced “multiple rejections” near the $94,000–$97,000 zone, a formidable resistance level that has capped rallies more than once. The failure to sustain a breakout from this region culminated in a decisive drop below $84,000. This level is significant, having provided a foundation for the market since November 2025. Dami-Defi cautions that a daily or weekly close beneath $84,000 could open the door to further losses, with the next substantial area of support lying between $74,000 and $76,000.

The immediate market impact has been severe. Data from CoinGlass reveals that the sharp decline led to the liquidation of over 274,000 traders, totaling nearly $2 billion. This volatility pushed Bitcoin’s price to briefly touch levels not seen since April, with the daily range oscillating between $81,300 and $88,300. At the time of reporting, tracking data from CoinGecko listed Bitcoin at just above $82,600. Dami-Defi added context to the move, suggesting it appears to be part of a larger shift in risk appetite across financial markets, not an isolated crypto event.

Beyond the immediate technical picture, some analysts are drawing parallels to past bear markets, projecting a far more dramatic downturn. Market observer Aralez has pointed to historical precedents, noting Bitcoin dropped 84% from its peak in 2018 and 77.4% in 2022. Applying a similar pattern to the current cycle, based on a projected 2025 peak of $126,000, Aralez forecasts a potential 72.2% decline that could drive the price toward approximately $32,000 in 2026. This analysis, shared publicly, serves as a stark warning that “things are about to get worse.”

This bearish historical perspective introduces a long-term risk narrative that contrasts with shorter-term support levels. While the $74,000–$76,000 zone is the next focal point for many traders, the cycle analysis from Aralez suggests that even that support may be temporary if the historical pattern of deep post-peak corrections repeats. The projection hinges on the assumption of a $126,000 peak in 2025, making the timing and scale of that anticipated top a critical variable for the severity of any subsequent bear market.

Not all market watchers subscribe to the deeply bearish thesis. Analyst Egrag Crypto maintains that Bitcoin’s larger structural setup remains stable. They note that the price is still holding above the 21-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and trading inside a rising channel. From this viewpoint, a pullback toward $62,000 could be construed as a regular fluctuation within a persistent uptrend. Egrag Crypto stated that the outlook would only turn bearish if Bitcoin accepted a position below this key moving average on monthly closes, assigning a 60–65% probability that Bitcoin reaches $200,000 before experiencing any major correction.

The market’s fragility is being compounded by external factors. Reports of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically the deployment of the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group near Iran, are adding a layer of macro risk aversion. Simultaneously, political speculation is injecting uncertainty into traditional finance, with reports that President Trump may nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve. Although Warsh has spoken positively about cryptocurrency in the past, the immediate trader reaction to the news has been one of caution, reflecting the market’s sensitivity to any potential shift in U.S. monetary policy leadership amid the current volatility.