Bitcoin Demand Turns Positive as Futures Interest Lags

For the first time in more than a month, Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand metric has flipped positive, according to Julio Moreno, head of research at on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. This key indicator, which measures spot demand for the cryptocurrency, calculates the difference between BTC’s daily production from miners and changes in its inventory held in the 1-year inactive supply. The metric’s 30-day sum had fallen into negative territory last month, indicating declining demand for the asset.

The recent sharp surge back into positive territory marks a significant shift in market dynamics. As Moreno revealed through CryptoQuant’s analysis, this represents the first time since early October that demand for BTC is showing growth. The metric’s calculation methodology provides a clear picture of underlying market forces, with production representing new Bitcoin entering circulation and inventory reflecting coins being removed from active trading through long-term holding.

This positive flip in Apparent Demand comes at a crucial time for Bitcoin markets, suggesting that despite price volatility, fundamental spot demand is beginning to recover. The timing is particularly noteworthy given that it follows an extended period of negative readings throughout much of the recent market correction phase.

While spot buying demand shows signs of recovery, the perpetual futures market tells a different story. According to analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin Futures Open Interest has remained at low levels since last month’s leverage flush. This indicator tracks the total amount of perpetual futures positions related to Bitcoin that are currently open across all centralized exchanges.

The data reveals a significant plunge in October as the BTC price drawdown liquidated a large number of positions. Since this decline, the metric has remained at its lows, indicating that speculative buildup in the derivatives market remains limited. Glassnode noted that ‘derivatives activity has slowed materially, mirroring the broader backdrop of subdued market sentiment.’

The contrast between recovering spot demand and stagnant futures activity presents a complex picture for market analysts. While traditional spot markets show renewed interest, the lack of speculative positioning in derivatives suggests continued caution among leveraged traders, potentially reflecting ongoing uncertainty about near-term price direction.

Another area showing persistent weakness is the United States Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Glassnode’s analysis in a separate X post shows that US Bitcoin spot ETFs have mostly seen outflows since early October. This trend points to what the analytics firm describes as ‘a broader de-risking phase among ETF investors.’

The consistent outflows from US-based spot ETFs contrast with the positive Apparent Demand metric, suggesting that while overall spot demand may be recovering, institutional investors through ETF channels continue to exhibit caution. This divergence highlights the complexity of current market sentiment, where different segments of the Bitcoin ecosystem are sending mixed signals about investor confidence and risk appetite.

The ongoing de-risking behavior among ETF investors, combined with low futures market activity, creates a challenging environment for Bitcoin’s price recovery despite the positive turn in broader spot demand metrics. This institutional caution appears to be weighing on overall market sentiment and potentially limiting upside momentum.

The mixed signals across different market segments come as Bitcoin price action shows continued volatility. Following recent recovery attempts, BTC has retraced some of its gains, with the price coming down to $103,200. This price level reflects the ongoing tension between improving spot demand fundamentals and persistent weakness in derivatives and institutional ETF flows.

The positive Apparent Demand reading from CryptoQuant suggests underlying strength may be building, potentially providing a foundation for future price stability. However, the low Futures Open Interest and continued ETF outflows indicate that broader market confidence remains fragile. This combination of factors creates an environment where short-term price movements may continue to be volatile despite improving fundamental metrics.

Market participants will be closely watching whether the positive Apparent Demand trend can be sustained and whether it eventually translates into renewed interest across derivatives and ETF channels. For now, the market appears to be in a transitional phase, with spot demand recovery providing a potential catalyst for broader market improvement, though institutional caution continues to act as a counterbalance to more optimistic scenarios.