Introduction
For the first time in its history, Bitcoin’s price trajectory has diverged from the growth of the global money supply, breaking a long-standing correlation with traditional liquidity flows. According to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, this unprecedented decoupling is driven by mounting concerns over quantum computing’s threat to Bitcoin’s cryptographic security. This shift in market dynamics coincides with continued weak demand for Bitcoin spot ETFs, presenting a complex picture for the leading cryptocurrency as it trades near $92,100.
Key Points
- Bitcoin's price trajectory has diverged from global M2 supply growth for the first time, breaking a historical correlation.
- Quantum computing is cited as a key risk, potentially enabling attacks on early Bitcoin wallets and shaking market confidence.
- Bitcoin spot ETFs face significant outflows, highlighting ongoing weak institutional demand despite recent price gains.
A Historic Divergence from Global Liquidity
Analysis from Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards reveals a significant market shift: Bitcoin’s year-over-year percentage change has flatlined in 2025, while the global M2 supply—the total money supply of the world’s major economies—has continued to grow. This marks the first instance where Bitcoin has decoupled from the broader trend of global liquidity flows. Historically, the cryptocurrency’s price movements have closely shadowed changes in the global money supply, making this divergence a notable departure from established market behavior.
Edwards highlighted this development in a recent post on X, citing a chart that visually underscores the breakdown of this correlation. “This is the first time Bitcoin has decoupled from money supply and global liquidity flows,” the analyst noted. The decoupling suggests that Bitcoin is no longer moving in lockstep with the macroeconomic liquidity conditions that have previously influenced its valuation, indicating a potential shift in the fundamental drivers of its market price.
The Quantum Computing Catalyst
According to Edwards, the primary catalyst for this decoupling is the emerging risk posed by quantum computing to the Bitcoin network. Quantum computers, which leverage quantum-mechanical phenomena, are theorized to possess the capability to break the cryptographic algorithms that secure Bitcoin wallets. Edwards posits that Bitcoin entered a “Quantum Event Horizon” in 2025, a point where “the timeframe to a non-zero probability of a quantum machine breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography is now less than the estimated time it will take to upgrade Bitcoin.”
The threat is particularly acute for dormant wallets from Bitcoin’s early days, which may be vulnerable to such an attack. In theory, a bad actor with a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could access these old wallets and dump the coins onto the market. This scenario carries a dual risk: a direct, negative impact on Bitcoin’s price from the sudden supply influx and a broader erosion of trust in the cryptocurrency’s foundational security. “Money is repositioning to account for this risk accordingly,” Edwards explained, suggesting that sophisticated capital allocators are adjusting their strategies.
While some market observers on X have questioned the widespread acceptance of this quantum timeline, Edwards countered that the concern is prevalent among experienced, long-term participants. “If you talk to real capital allocators and Bitcoin OGs in the space 7+ years in private – they are all considering this risk,” he stated, implying that the decoupling reflects the actions of informed, institutional-level investors rather than retail sentiment.
ETF Outflows and Current Market Context
This fundamental shift occurs against a backdrop of tepid institutional demand, as evidenced by recent data on U.S. Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to figures from SoSoValue, these ETFs witnessed significant outflows of $681 million last week, underscoring a period of weak investor appetite. While the new week has begun with modest inflows, it remains uncertain whether this trend will reverse the recent pattern of withdrawals.
Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin’s price has shown resilience in the short term. At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $92,100, reflecting a nearly 2% gain over the past 24 hours. This price action suggests that while long-term structural concerns like quantum risk may be influencing capital allocation and decoupling Bitcoin from traditional metrics, near-term trading dynamics remain active. The juxtaposition of a rising price, historic decoupling from global M2, and ETF outflows paints a complex and nuanced picture of the current cryptocurrency market landscape.
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