Bitcoin Cycle Theory Challenged as Analyst Questions 4-Year Pattern

PlanB, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow model, has begun publicly questioning his own creation and the relevance of the four-year market cycles that have become dogma in cryptocurrency analysis. The analyst directly challenged bearish predictions that $126,000 marked the cycle top and that Bitcoin would fall below $100,000, with 2026 becoming a bear market primarily due to the four-year cycle pattern. ‘IMO that is a BIG misunderstanding,’ PlanB stated, acknowledging that while there have been four-year cycles revolving around Bitcoin halving events, ‘three cycles are not enough for a reliable pattern.’

The traditional wisdom that Bitcoin peaks approximately 18 months after each halving—which would place the next top around October 2025—is ‘absolutely not guaranteed,’ according to PlanB. This represents a significant departure from the analyst’s previous modeling approach and challenges one of the most deeply entrenched narratives in Bitcoin market analysis. The stock-to-flow model creator suggested that the cycle top could instead occur in 2026, 2027, or even 2028, indicating a potential fundamental shift in how Bitcoin markets operate.

Rather than focusing on cycle tops and bottoms, PlanB expressed greater interest in average price levels, signaling a maturation in his analytical approach. ‘Actually, I am much more interested in the average price level than the top (or the bottom),’ he said, suggesting that sustainable price appreciation may matter more than cyclical extremes. This perspective aligns with Bitcoin’s increasing institutional adoption and the potential transition to more stable valuation metrics.

PlanB identified a crucial market development: ‘What I do know is: there has not been a fundamental Bitcoin phase transition yet in this cycle.’ He outlined two possible scenarios—either ‘the big jump has yet to come, or we have transitioned into a more stable price regime, dominated by institutions, fund mandates, and rebalancing.’ Importantly, PlanB characterized both scenarios as ‘very bullish for Bitcoin,’ indicating that regardless of which path the market takes, the long-term outlook remains positive.

PlanB is not alone in observing that current market dynamics differ from previous cycles. Prominent analyst Willy Woo noted distinct liquidity patterns, observing that ‘the liquidity driving the cycle top of the last bull market came from paper derivative markets, which is a short term instrument.’ Woo contrasted this with the current environment: ‘This cycle is shaping up differently. Paper has already started dropping away, while longer term spot liquidity is holding up for now.’ This suggests a healthier market foundation less dependent on leveraged speculation.

Analyst Rekt Capital provided additional context about recent market sentiment, noting that when Bitcoin dropped below $104,000 last week, ‘many feared a bear market had just begun and were wishing for the price to go up a bit more so that they could just exit at a decent level.’ However, Rekt Capital observed that ‘people feel differently about price now’ following the recovery, though this assessment preceded the most recent price decline. The shifting sentiment highlights the psychological impact of volatility on market participants.

Bitcoin experienced significant volatility during the Tuesday morning Asian trading session, tanking more than 3% and crashing back to $107,700. The price action appears to have found support around the critical $108,000 level, with the plunge stopping at that technical threshold at the time of writing. This price movement demonstrates the ongoing market jitteriness that analysts have been monitoring.

The recent volatility underscores the need for solid fundamentals to provide the market boost that analysts are anticipating. The uncertainty surrounding traditional cycle predictions, combined with the potential transition to institutional-dominated price discovery, creates a complex environment for both traders and long-term investors. As PlanB and other analysts suggest, the market may be evolving beyond the patterns that have characterized Bitcoin’s first decade, requiring new frameworks for understanding price action and market structure in the era of institutional participation.