Bitcoin Could Hit $140K in October, Analyst Predicts

According to crypto analyst and economist Timothy Peterson’s AI-based bootstrapped simulation chart, Bitcoin’s trajectory in October appears promising, with half of the month’s gains potentially already realized. The empirical model, which draws on data from October 2015 to 2024, reveals a 50% probability that BTC could end the month above $140,000. Additionally, the model indicates a 43% probability that the Bitcoin price will finish below $136,000 within the same time frame.

Peterson’s chart displays observed daily prices leading into October 2025 and a projected range extending into early November. The model’s mean prediction, represented by the dashed blue line, suggests a gradual climb from the $120,000 range toward the $140,000 mark. The 68% confidence interval remains comfortably positioned above $130,000 for much of the forecast period, providing substantial support for the bullish outlook.

The model also includes a 95% confidence interval, shown by the wider orange band, which highlights the full range of likely outcomes. This comprehensive analysis suggests that Bitcoin has only a slight chance, about 5%, of finishing October below $110,000 and above $170,000, indicating relatively contained downside risk compared to the significant upside potential.

Peterson’s analysis reveals that October has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, with specific calendar dates showing remarkable consistency in bullish performance. His research highlights that the 9th, 20th, and 28th of October have been bullish 71% of the time since 2015, while the 29th has seen gains 78% of the time over the same period.

This historical tendency of October surges lends additional weight to the analyst’s bullish Bitcoin price forecast, suggesting that recurring patterns could help propel the cryptocurrency to new all-time highs soon. The consistency of these seasonal patterns across nearly a decade of data provides a robust foundation for the current price prediction, indicating that market behavior during this month follows identifiable trends.

The combination of historical performance data with advanced empirical modeling creates a compelling case for October’s potential as a breakout month for Bitcoin. The recurrence of these patterns across multiple market cycles suggests that seasonal factors may play a significant role in cryptocurrency price movements, particularly for the dominant digital asset.

Beyond the immediate October forecast, Peterson presented a chart illustrating Bitcoin’s long-term price structure since 2022. While clarifying that he is not a proponent of traditional technical analysis, he emphasized his belief in repeating market cycle patterns. The chart depicts Bitcoin’s price movement within two parallel red trend lines, showing a consistent upward trajectory since the market bottom.

Within this framework, several green upward segments indicate recurring phases of rapid price appreciation. According to this cyclical model, Bitcoin remains firmly within an established growth channel, projecting a potential rise toward $200,000 within the next 170 days. Peterson assigned this bullish scenario a ‘better than 50/50 chance,’ suggesting that current market structure and historical recovery patterns support continued Bitcoin price appreciation well into 2026.

The long-term analysis complements the short-term October forecast by providing context for Bitcoin’s broader market cycle progression. The established growth channel since 2022 demonstrates the cryptocurrency’s resilience and consistent recovery patterns, offering investors a framework for understanding potential price movements beyond the immediate month. This dual-timeframe analysis provides both near-term trading opportunities and longer-term investment perspectives for market participants.