Bitcoin Could Drop to $41,500 by 2026, Analyst Warns

The recent market behavior, where Bitcoin has floundered under $90,000 while other asset classes enjoyed Christmas rallies, has intensified scrutiny of its cyclical patterns. In a new analysis shared on the X platform, Joao Wedson of Alphractal has projected a specific timeline and target for the next Bitcoin bear market bottom. Utilizing the Repetition Fractal Cycle chart, which maps how investor behavioral patterns and price movements repeat across different time scales, Wedson pinpoints early October 2026 as the most likely window for the cycle’s conclusion.

This forecast is rooted in Bitcoin’s historical 4-year cycle, which typically progresses through phases of accumulation, markup, distribution, and finally, a bear market. Wedson’s analysis suggests the most favorable period for the next accumulation phase—and thus the cycle bottom—would fall between October 6 and October 16, 2026. The price target for Bitcoin at the start of this phase is projected to be between $41,500 and $45,000.

Wedson was careful to frame this not as a deterministic prediction but as a ‘fractal rhyme’ of market cycles. ‘This is not a fixed rule,’ he warned in his post. ‘It represents a fractal rhyme of market cycles — something Bitcoin has historically respected more often than ignored. Markets do not repeat exactly — but they rhyme with an uncomfortable frequency.’ This perspective underscores the analysis as a probabilistic model based on historical symmetry, not an absolute guarantee.

A drop to the $41,500-$45,000 range from Bitcoin’s current price point near $87,550 would represent an approximate 50% decline. This potential correction, while severe, is framed within the context of Bitcoin’s volatile history. Notably, this projected drawdown is significantly lower than the over 75% correction witnessed during the last major bear market in 2022. The analysis implies that while a new bear phase may be commencing, its depth could be less extreme than the previous cycle’s capitulation.

If the price were to fall to around $45,000 from a future cycle top, it would constitute a roughly 65% decline from that peak. This metric provides a different comparative lens, suggesting the overall market structure of peaks and troughs may be evolving, even as the cyclical pattern persists. The current stagnation, with BTC showing no significant movement in the past 24 hours and holding around $87,550, aligns with the early distribution or bearish transition phase outlined in the fractal model.

The core takeaway from this on-chain analysis is the reinforcement of Bitcoin’s cyclical nature. The Repetition Fractal Cycle chart used by Wedson is a tool that abstracts investor psychology—greed, fear, accumulation, and distribution—into predictable temporal patterns. The projection for a bottom in October 2026 fits the established narrative of a four-year cycle, often linked to Bitcoin’s halving events, though the analysis provided focuses purely on price and time symmetry.

For investors, this analysis presents a framework for long-term strategy rather than short-term trading signals. It suggests that if historical patterns continue to ‘rhyme,’ the market could face an extended period of downward or sideways movement before a new accumulation phase begins in late 2026. The identified price band of $41,500 to $45,000 offers a potential target zone for that next cycle low, providing a data-driven, albeit non-deterministic, scenario for risk assessment and future planning in the volatile crypto market.