Bitcoin Bull Cycle Over? Expert Warns of 50% Drop to $45K

Crypto expert Tony Severino’s bearish outlook is anchored in the U.S. ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which he views as a reliable gauge for cyclical economic behavior. The current PMI data, sitting around 47.9, shows a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows—a classic signal of a weakening manufacturing environment. Severino argues that real economic cycles are measured from trough to trough, not from speculative projections. From this perspective, the current PMI structure indicates the cycle has already peaked and is now rolling over, creating a macroeconomic backdrop that directly challenges the idea of an imminent, guaranteed new bullish phase for Bitcoin.

Severino warns that a sustained move below the 46 level would transform the PMI from a local pullback into a more pronounced intermediate downtrend. The implications grow even more severe if the index drops beneath 41.6, a level that would fall below the COVID-era low. Such a decline would leave only extreme historical comparisons, including conditions last seen during the 2007-2009 Great Financial Crisis or the stagflation period of the 1970s and early 1980s. This analysis forms the core of his argument against what he calls “snake oil salesmen” pushing a bullish “fairy tale.”

Severino’s technical analysis reinforces his macroeconomic concerns. His recent chart analysis shows Bitcoin breaking below a key moving average on the monthly candlestick timeframe. This breakdown is significant because similar technical failures in previous years were followed by substantial drawdowns. Historical data highlights multiple instances where Bitcoin suffered declines ranging from 40% to over 60% after losing this specific type of technical support, with the average drawdown hovering around 50%.

Based on this established historical behavior, Severino has floated a concrete downside target of at least $45,000 before any potential bullish reversal can be considered. This represents a stark shift from his previously bullish stance earlier in the cycle, marking a significant pivot in his analysis based on emerging data. The technical picture, combined with the macro indicators, paints a scenario where Bitcoin is not on the cusp of a new leg up but is instead vulnerable to a deep correction.

Further complicating the bullish case for Bitcoin is its relative performance. Severino points out that Bitcoin is currently lagging behind traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver, which are attracting consistent inflows. This contrasts sharply with Bitcoin’s show of fatigue as it struggles to sustain momentum around the $80,000 level. The underperformance challenges narratives that position Bitcoin as “digital gold” destined to outperform its physical counterpart in all market conditions.

Severino also takes direct aim at popular Bitcoin valuation models that compare BTC to gold or rely on long-term projections he views as detached from economic reality. His critique suggests that many optimistic forecasts ignore the current, tangible signals from the broader economy and market structure. The combination of weakening macro fundamentals, a broken technical picture, and underperformance versus precious metals forms a triad of evidence that Severino believes signals the completion of Bitcoin’s primary bullish cycle and the transition into a different, more challenging phase.