Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Enters True Bear Phase

According to crypto analyst Doctor Profit, Bitcoin’s breach of the weekly EMA50—what he terms the ‘golden line’—represents a fundamental shift in market structure. Throughout the entire 2024 cycle, Bitcoin had consistently closed weekly candles above this critical level, with each touch of the EMA50 triggering a bounce that reinforced the bull market thesis. The EMA50 served as a reliable support line that confirmed the underlying strength of Bitcoin’s upward trajectory, making its recent failure to hold particularly significant.

Doctor Profit emphasized that this breakdown differs fundamentally from previous technical warnings. While Bitcoin experienced death cross formations in September 2023, August 2024, and April 2025, each of those events occurred while the cryptocurrency was trading substantially above the EMA50—by 17% in August 2024 and 12% in April 2025. In all three previous instances, Bitcoin respected the EMA50 as support and subsequently rallied between 25% and 60%, rendering those death crosses false bearish signals. The current scenario, however, features Bitcoin trading 6% below the EMA50 at the time of the death cross, with the golden line having already failed as support, leading the analyst to characterize this as a ‘true death cross’ that confirms bearish pressure.

The technical breakdown coincides with substantial institutional outflows that began in late October, creating what the Kobeissi Letter describes as a ‘structural and mechanical’ bear phase. Crypto funds witnessed a record $1.2 billion in net outflows in early November, representing a significant shift from the balanced market structure that characterized earlier corrections in 2024 and 2025. Previously, ETF selling was offset by whale accumulation, creating stability, but current data shows both ETFs and whales exhibiting negative volume, compounding the downward pressure.

High leverage across the cryptocurrency market has transformed routine volatility into dramatic price swings, with multiple trading days experiencing over $1 billion in liquidations. This excessive leverage is amplifying the decline beyond what fundamentals would typically dictate, creating a feedback loop where liquidations beget further price drops. Market sentiment has collapsed to its lowest level since February, reflecting the pervasive fear that now dominates trader psychology.

Doctor Profit challenges the conventional wisdom that extreme fear automatically signals a market bottom, pointing to Bitcoin’s 2021 decline from $68,000 to the $50,000 range when the Fear and Greed Index hit extreme levels, only for the price to continue falling until it reached the $16,000-$18,000 region. The current environment presents additional risks, with the average Bitcoin buyer from the last six months having an entry point around $94,600—a level that could trigger further selling pressure if approached or breached, as short-term traders often exit positions at breakeven or slight losses.

The convergence of technical breakdown, institutional outflows, and vulnerable positioning creates a more dangerous correction than those experienced in earlier phases of the cycle. Unlike previous death crosses that proved to be buying opportunities, the current ‘true death cross’ occurring below the EMA50 suggests the market structure has fundamentally changed. With both technical and fundamental factors aligning bearishly, and leverage magnifying every downward move, Bitcoin faces a challenging path ahead as it navigates what analysts characterize as a structural bear phase driven by mechanical market forces rather than deteriorating fundamentals.