Bitcoin Bear Risk Rises Without ETF Inflows, Says CryptoQuant CEO

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has issued a stark warning based on a composite on-chain dashboard tracking Bitcoin’s price from 2021 to 2025. The chart overlays ten key metrics—including the MVRV Z-score, Stablecoin Liquidity, Network Activity Index, and Trader On-chain Profit Margin—in a red-to-green heatmap. Historically, clusters of bearish readings have coincided with major market regime shifts. In the latest section of the chart, as Bitcoin has pulled back from its all-time highs, red once again dominates the visual, forming the basis for Ju’s assessment that “Most Bitcoin on-chain indicators are bearish.”

This dashboard is designed to show how past bull market tops and bear markets aligned with persistent stretches of red across profit, valuation, and liquidity metrics. The current bearish tilt across this suite of indicators suggests the internal momentum that drove Bitcoin’s rally earlier in the cycle has dissipated. According to Ju’s analysis shared on X, this shift means that “Without macro liquidity, we enter a bear cycle,” placing the onus for the next major price move squarely on external capital flows rather than organic on-chain strength.

Ju’s analysis marks a significant pivot in market drivers. He argues that on-chain data is now “subordinate to macro conditions and ETF flows.” He distilled this view into a simple directive: “It is simple. If you think macro gets better next year, you buy. Otherwise, you sell. I’m not a macro expert, so find macro bros. New ETF inflows are the key.” This statement pinpoints spot ETFs as the essential conduit for the institutional capital required to avert a deeper drawdown.

The correlation between ETF activity and price is clear in recent market behavior. In earlier stages of the cycle, robust inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs coincided with strong price appreciation. More recently, as those flows have slowed or turned negative, Bitcoin has lost its upward momentum, mirroring the capital drought. This dynamic frames the current environment as one where price direction is less about predictive on-chain signals and more about reactive scenario management to incoming macro and ETF flow data.

Despite the bearish warnings, Ju does not foresee a repeat of the catastrophic 2022 bear market, during which Bitcoin fell roughly 65% from peak to trough. He cites the behavior of Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy as a primary stabilizing factor. “If MicroStrategy holds its 650K BTC this cycle (or sells only a little), we would not see another -65% drawdown like in 2022,” Ju wrote. In his view, this massive supply remaining largely off the market reduces the probability of a violent, cascading deleveraging event.

Ju characterizes the current pullback—approximately 25% from the all-time high—as substantial but not extreme in a historical context. He suggests that even if a bear cycle materializes, “the downside would likely be smaller and look more like a broad sideways range.” This outlook points toward a period of prolonged consolidation rather than a single dramatic crash. His explicit message to long-term holders is to “avoid panic selling,” as the structural backdrop for Bitcoin has improved with “more liquidity channels now,” including ETFs and a deeper institutional market structure than in prior cycles.

In light of the shifting market dynamics, Ju advises a flexible trading approach. “At this stage, it is more about being reactive than predictive. Set your scenarios and trade accordingly,” he told his followers. This philosophy acknowledges the heightened influence of unpredictable macro factors and ETF flow data over the traditionally reliable on-chain signals. The composite chart itself is a tool for this reactive strategy, helping traders visualize when clusters of indicators have historically signaled major trend changes.

Ultimately, while the short-term on-chain picture appears bearish, Ju maintains a constructive long-term view based on Bitcoin’s evolving ecosystem. “Bitcoin has more liquidity channels now, so the long-term outlook is obviously strong, imo,” he concluded. This creates a nuanced landscape where cyclical headwinds, signaled by red indicators, are tempered by structural tailwinds from institutional adoption, leaving the market at a critical juncture dependent on the return of macro liquidity through its newest and most significant channel: spot ETFs.